Tesco states that the store refurbishment incorporates an improved fresh food and non-food offer as well as general improvements to the facilities and the shopping experience.
These improvements are likely to result in the store attaining the catchment below (see diagram below right).
The primary catchment is clearly truncated to the south-west of the store by the large Sainsbury's Savacentre that dominates the competition in this area. Sainsbury's also caps the catchment to the north with its Lewisham store, to the east at Lee Green and to the west at Forest Hill. In short, the Tesco store in Catford appears to remain very vulnerable from an attack on all fronts by competitor Sainsbury's.
As a result Tesco has just a 19% share (see bottom left) of the market located within the Catford store's catchment. The strong local presence of Sainsbury's results in it stealing a massive 49% of the available supermarket expenditure from the area shaded on the map.
Asda is remarkably weak in the area, with its nearest stores being located in the Isle of Dogs, to the wrong side of the Thames for the shoppers of Catford, and three miles away at Charlton.
Safeway, Marks & Spencer and Waitrose make up the majority of the remaining competition.
The demographic profile of the area does not help Tesco boost its local market share.
The breakdown shows that the profile of a typical Tesco customer has a fairly poor fit' to the catchment of the Catford store. Indeed CACI's analysis reveals that none of the major supermarket chains have a particularly strong offer for the demographic groups that dominate the catchment.
Sainsbury's has the best fit but it is still relatively weak among the key customer groups in the Catford catchment, as shown below.
Asda appears particularly weak among all of Catford's main demographic groups, which may go some way to explain its low presence in this corner of London.