Consumer confidence has edged up by two points in GfK’s monthly barometer, as worries over November’s budget settle.
Consumers have resumed the wary outlook they have maintained through the year, at –17 points. The two-point rise mirrored an up-and-down pattern seen since July, when overall confidence scores have flickered between –19 and –17 on a monthly basis.
“It’s tempting to see festive cheer in December’s two-point improvement in consumer confidence,” said GfK’s consumer insights director Neil Bellamy.
“Are we seeing a sigh of relief that the autumn budget wasn’t as bad as most had feared?”
All five of the barometer’s measures of confidence had improved, led by a four-point jump in major purchase intentions – a surprise, given lacklustre Black Friday sales, Bellamy said.
“Have people decided to spend on Christmas regardless, and worry about 2026 later? However, looking at the full year, the December headline score of –17 is the same as 12 months ago, and on that basis 2025 has been a year of no progress.”
Shoppers remain hesitantly – or barely – optimistic about their personal financial situation over the next 12 months, at a positive score of two.
Compared to their personal situation over the past 12 months – at –6 points – or the general economic situation over the past 12 months – at –40 points – consumers’ faintly positive outlook looks a little more like stoicism, Bellamy added.
“UK households still face cost of living pressures, despite the recent softening in inflation, along with rising economic uncertainty, and those conditions result in weaker consumer confidence,” he said.
“Sadly, consumers resemble a family on a festive winter hike, crossing a boggy field – plodding along stoically, getting stuck in the mud and hoping that easier conditions are not far off.”
The Office for National Statistics’ December bulletin on inflation may give shoppers further grounds for hope, as weaker food and drink prices prompted an unexpectedly sharp drop in inflation in November.
Government figures showed inflation 30 basis points below the expected 3.5% rise in consumer costs, powered by a 70 basis point fall in the rate of food and drink inflation.
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