One in five grocery trips involves at least one missing item, with empty shelves putting £2.1bn of grocery sales at risk, according to extensive new research from DHL Supply Chain and Retail Economics.
The research assessed the in-store availability of 40 high-frequency grocery items across fresh, ambient and household categories reflective of a typical weekly household shop in over 100 stores and formats, and surveyed 2,000 UK households to quantify the behavioural impact of availability.
Convenience stores account for around one-fifth of grocery sales, but represent almost half of all displaced spend due to out-of-stocks, the research claimed. Availability in these formats was in the low to mid-80% range, compared to over 90% in supermarkets.
Across the categories, produce had the poorest availability (84%), and dairy and eggs the best (97%).
The research also showed a regional gap. London and the southeast have the highest availability with 95% and 98%, supported by dense store networks and delivery infrastructure. The West Midlands was the lowest, sitting 12 points behind at 84%.
The audits found one in five UK grocery trips involve at least one out-of-stock item, equating to around 930 million shopping visits each year where customers leave without something they wanted.
The results were published in ‘The availability effect: Why trust, margin and loyalty start at the shelf edge’, and will be presented at LIVE 2026 at the Business Design Centre tomorrow (3 March).
The research found convenience and reliability now outweigh price for one in three shoppers, rising to 63% of the most affluent shoppers. More than half (55%) of family households with children at home said availability was more important to them than price.
Most shoppers will tolerate one or two missing items as a minor irritation and continue to shop as normal. At three to four items, frustration kicks in and erodes confidence, although most shoppers would still return, the research found. Encountered with five or more missing items, shoppers are unlikely to return to the shop.
Nearly half (44%) of consumers said they had switched or added another supermarket in the past year due to stock availability issues, with this rising to almost two-thirds of shoppers under 45. Nearly six in 10 (59%) say availability is a key reason they shop across multiple stores.
“The research shows even small stock gaps can have a significant impact on how shoppers feel about a retailer,” said Nick Archer, MD for convenience and consumer at DHL Supply Chain. “Despite the pressure on shoppers’ wallets, loyalty is being driven by more than price. In a market where customers can switch stores with ease, availability is much more than an operational metric. Being competitive in today’s market requires precision. Retailers and their partners need to be able to predict disruption, integrate data and execute efficiently.”
Richard Lim, CEO at Retail Economics, said: “In today’s environment of busy lifestyles, hybrid working and smaller, more frequent shopping trips, customers expect to find what they need quickly and easily. This is not only limited to grocery, but in all retail sectors, from fashion to beauty. Convenience comes down to having products there when the customer needs them, and availability has become the clearest sign of reliability. Retailers who get it right will be the ones who earn trust and lasting loyalty.”
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