Fears over the impact of the crisis in the Middle East are yet to drag on grocery spend, which was boosted as shoppers prepared for Easter. However, Brits will likely begin to cut back as fuel and food prices start to increase, Worldpanel by Numerator has warned.
Like-for-like grocery inflation “held steady” at 4.3% in the four weeks to 22 March, according to Worldpanel’s latest market share data. Take-home grocery sales increased by 4.4% during the same period, driven by rises in the price of core Easter lines.
The average price of an Easter egg rose to £3.27, up 9% on the previous year. Despite the rise, shoppers were still keen to celebrate, with 30% buying at least one Easter egg over the month. In addition, 40% said they had bought at least one pack of hot cross buns.
However, as the impact of the Iran war is increasingly felt at the petrol pump, and in food prices, shoppers are likely to begin to cut back. Over 60% admitted to being “extremely concerned about” higher food prices.
Each additional one percentage point increase on inflation was likely to add £50 to the average household grocery bill, Numerator said.
“Financial anxiety among British consumers was already running high before the conflict began,” said Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel by Numerator.
“And with grocery inflation likely to increase and fuel costs rising sharply, the conditions that make shoppers feel vulnerable are only intensifying,” he said.
“Shoppers will look to lessen the impact on their baskets when faced with rising prices, and while there remains a level of uncertainty, we are watching the data closely for behavioural changes like trading down and switching, which often emerge during periods of economic pressure,” he added.
Lidl neck and neck with Morrisons
In terms of supermarket grocery sales, Lidl was again the fastest-growing brick & mortar retailer, with a 9.6% year-on-year rise in sales, pushing its market share up by 0.5% to 8.3% in the 12 weeks to 22 March.
It means Lidl is neck and neck with Morrisons – where sales were up 2.3% – as the UK’s fifth-largest supermarket by market share. Fellow discounter Aldi also grew sales, by 2.3%.
Tesco and Sainsbury’s maintained their gap over the rest, with sales up 5% and 5.5% respectively.
Asda once again was the only supermarket to lose market share, with sales down 0.9%, However, this was its best performance since April 2024, giving credence to Allan Leighton’s claim that it is “edging forward”.
At the premium end of the market, grocery sales at Waitrose were up 5.8%, up 9.5% at M&S, while pureplay Ocado was once again the fastest-growing grocer, at 12.3%, helping it grow its market share to 2.2%.
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