Food is in the front line as science prepares to lay a new foundation for the global economy. Siân Harrington reports
Of the 72,000 field experiments across the world he continues: “We are taking genes and putting them in places where it is not natural to do so. These experiments are irreversible and who will be liable?”
Imagine material so thin it is like a spider’s web but so strong it can withstand a bullet. Coffee plants that produce 70% less caffeine than today’s coffee beans. Or plastic tags that change colour when exposed to rotting food.
These are not fanciful ideas dreamed up by mad Marvel Comic professors, but groundbreaking realities. And they are just some of the developments set to revolutionise the food and drink industry.
Indeed, according to some futurists, we are on the cusp of a new economic era that makes the changes and challenges of the information era seem like child’s play. Stan Davis, senior research fellow at the CAP Gemini Ernst & Young Center for Business Innovation in Massachusetts, predicts: “Within two decades biotechnologies will have become significant enough to rival IT for the economy’s foundation.”
So are we really poised for a fundamental change to our economic system because the IT age is about to be superseded by a molecular or bio-based economy? And what does it mean exactly for the food and drink industry?
Davis believes the economy is half way through the third quarter of the information era and at the gestation stage of the next era. In this new era, biotechnology will break from the confines of the lab to spread rapidly in the business world - causing fundamental changes in the production of food and in the way business is structured. “First quarters are dominated by science and by the time they end the technology-driven second quarter has begun,” explains Davis. “That’s when you get early adapters [pioneers who adopt the technology first].”
This is the time when most sectors ask why they would possibly want or need the technology. For example, when computers were introduced, people asked why a fishery or hotel would need computers, says Davis. “You’d ask the same question now - why would I want to use biotechnology?”
The signs are that some people are already finding answers to this question -
most notably in the genetically modified food arena. Taking Davis’ argument to its logical conclusion then, the current debate about GM food is academic.
GM is inevitable because, just as the energy source of the information age was semi-conductors and chips, the new energy source will be pharmaceuticals and medical science. Knowledge gained from this will be utilised in food and agriculture. Hence Monsanto’s herbicide-resistant gene.
Davis’ theory is that the bio economy will generate totally new business models. “The parent science of the industrial and information economies was physics - laws of the universe which we discover. It is top
down. The parent science of the new economy is biology. This is based on rules, not laws, and is bottom up and not predictive,” he says. In the future, therefore, businesses will need to change focus from prediction, control and strategic and scenario planning to speed and the ability to adapt. The future will be about permanent volatility and organisations will have to self-organise, respond and adapt to change.
Nigel White, sales and marketing director of pie manufacturer Walter Holland, heard Davis speak at a recent event in Harrogate. He feels that the move from top down to bottom up will create more volatility in the market. “There will be a lack of predictability about markets. I see a counter trend in the yearning for simplicity and how things used to be.”
The early stages of this can already be seen, adds White, citing organic produce, the growth of herbal tea, OTC anti-stress remedies and mineral water. “As more and more change happens, the consumer response will be to simplify life.”
But there are some subtle nuances to watch out for. Jeremy Rifkin, president of The Foundation on Economic Trends, suggests that marketing and not production will rule in the new economy. “It will all be about human experience, not property exchange between seller and buyer.” It will also pitch global commerce against local culture, he says, citing the different attitudes between Europe and the US towards GM foods. In this struggle companies will rely on finding a way of encapsulating the human story.
“The 21st century is about selling the story and there will be no greater struggle in the 21st century than that of GM foods,” he argues. And watch out for the social consequences, warns Rifkin. Companies are “rushing ahead with something that looks efficient in industry but the social consequences will result in longer-term economic issues”, he says.
It is not easy to convince Europeans of the value of GM or the introduction of third generation foods, expected in the US next year - where genomes are mapped and on the basis of that information, genes can be upgraded. Proponents argue this is better than cross-species breeding because, in wheat for example, they are drawing on thousands of years of classical breeding and just making it more efficient. But Rifkin says it will have a detrimental effect on insects, birds and animals ingesting the crop.
All of this will bring increasing consumer distrust of the sector, Rifkin believes. “If people lose control over their food choice what do they have left?” he asks. “Any decision that is wrong has a tremendous consequence because the economy will be based on speed. No other industry is more on the front line than food.”
But one thing is certain: nothing stands still and every time the infrastructure changes, the way companies conduct their activities changes too. As Davis says: “During the next decade we will increasingly see the overlap of information technologies and biological technologies in terms of their impact.” Don’t be left behind.
Coffee
Scientists at the Nara Institute of Science and Technology in Japan have used genetic engineering to silence a gene that makes caffeine in coffee plants. The technique reduced caffeine in coffee plants by up to 70%. These scientists now hope to develop the technology in Arabica coffee. The GM coffee will be cheaper and retain all the taste of regular coffee, they claim.
Tobacco
A US/UK study has showed genetically engineered tobacco plants can produce human proteins to combat rabies. Scientists at Thomas Jefferson University in Philadelphia have successfully inserted DNA coding for the human antibody against rabies into tobacco plants. Separately, the light gene from a firefly has been put in a tobacco plant, which now lights up 24 hours a day.
Food tags
Scientists at the US National Center for Toxicological Research in Japan have designed a polymer disc that changes colour when exposed to vapours given off by rotting food. The discs contain organic dyes which change from clear to pink, blue or yellow depending on the type of food, showing whether the
food has gone off. The first disc they hope to launch is for frozen fish and shrimps, followed by one for frozen vegetables. The tags could be available in two years but may mean supermarkets could end up throwing away more spoiled food than they normally would.
Web armour
Spider silk is the strongest natural material and if it could be produced in enough quantity it could create powerful body armour, such as a bullet-proof vest, or tougher packaging. Scientists discovered
that spider silk is a protein similar to goats milk. After injecting a spider gene into a goat, the goat produces a protein identical to that found in a spider’s web. The protein is extracted from the goat’s milk and made into silk fibres called BioSteel, which can be used to make the vests.
Golden rice
The International Rice Research Institute hopes to make golden rice available to farmers by 2006. Golden rice is being heralded as a solution to malnutrition in developing countries.
It is rice fortified with betacarotene, which stimulates the production of Vitamin A in humans.
New energy source
Field experiments
Of the 72,000 field experiments across the world he continues: “We are taking genes and putting them in places where it is not natural to do so. These experiments are irreversible and who will be liable?”
Imagine material so thin it is like a spider’s web but so strong it can withstand a bullet. Coffee plants that produce 70% less caffeine than today’s coffee beans. Or plastic tags that change colour when exposed to rotting food.
These are not fanciful ideas dreamed up by mad Marvel Comic professors, but groundbreaking realities. And they are just some of the developments set to revolutionise the food and drink industry.
Indeed, according to some futurists, we are on the cusp of a new economic era that makes the changes and challenges of the information era seem like child’s play. Stan Davis, senior research fellow at the CAP Gemini Ernst & Young Center for Business Innovation in Massachusetts, predicts: “Within two decades biotechnologies will have become significant enough to rival IT for the economy’s foundation.”
So are we really poised for a fundamental change to our economic system because the IT age is about to be superseded by a molecular or bio-based economy? And what does it mean exactly for the food and drink industry?
Davis believes the economy is half way through the third quarter of the information era and at the gestation stage of the next era. In this new era, biotechnology will break from the confines of the lab to spread rapidly in the business world - causing fundamental changes in the production of food and in the way business is structured. “First quarters are dominated by science and by the time they end the technology-driven second quarter has begun,” explains Davis. “That’s when you get early adapters [pioneers who adopt the technology first].”
This is the time when most sectors ask why they would possibly want or need the technology. For example, when computers were introduced, people asked why a fishery or hotel would need computers, says Davis. “You’d ask the same question now - why would I want to use biotechnology?”
The signs are that some people are already finding answers to this question -
most notably in the genetically modified food arena. Taking Davis’ argument to its logical conclusion then, the current debate about GM food is academic.
GM is inevitable because, just as the energy source of the information age was semi-conductors and chips, the new energy source will be pharmaceuticals and medical science. Knowledge gained from this will be utilised in food and agriculture. Hence Monsanto’s herbicide-resistant gene.
Davis’ theory is that the bio economy will generate totally new business models. “The parent science of the industrial and information economies was physics - laws of the universe which we discover. It is top
down. The parent science of the new economy is biology. This is based on rules, not laws, and is bottom up and not predictive,” he says. In the future, therefore, businesses will need to change focus from prediction, control and strategic and scenario planning to speed and the ability to adapt. The future will be about permanent volatility and organisations will have to self-organise, respond and adapt to change.
Nigel White, sales and marketing director of pie manufacturer Walter Holland, heard Davis speak at a recent event in Harrogate. He feels that the move from top down to bottom up will create more volatility in the market. “There will be a lack of predictability about markets. I see a counter trend in the yearning for simplicity and how things used to be.”
The early stages of this can already be seen, adds White, citing organic produce, the growth of herbal tea, OTC anti-stress remedies and mineral water. “As more and more change happens, the consumer response will be to simplify life.”
But there are some subtle nuances to watch out for. Jeremy Rifkin, president of The Foundation on Economic Trends, suggests that marketing and not production will rule in the new economy. “It will all be about human experience, not property exchange between seller and buyer.” It will also pitch global commerce against local culture, he says, citing the different attitudes between Europe and the US towards GM foods. In this struggle companies will rely on finding a way of encapsulating the human story.
“The 21st century is about selling the story and there will be no greater struggle in the 21st century than that of GM foods,” he argues. And watch out for the social consequences, warns Rifkin. Companies are “rushing ahead with something that looks efficient in industry but the social consequences will result in longer-term economic issues”, he says.
It is not easy to convince Europeans of the value of GM or the introduction of third generation foods, expected in the US next year - where genomes are mapped and on the basis of that information, genes can be upgraded. Proponents argue this is better than cross-species breeding because, in wheat for example, they are drawing on thousands of years of classical breeding and just making it more efficient. But Rifkin says it will have a detrimental effect on insects, birds and animals ingesting the crop.
All of this will bring increasing consumer distrust of the sector, Rifkin believes. “If people lose control over their food choice what do they have left?” he asks. “Any decision that is wrong has a tremendous consequence because the economy will be based on speed. No other industry is more on the front line than food.”
But one thing is certain: nothing stands still and every time the infrastructure changes, the way companies conduct their activities changes too. As Davis says: “During the next decade we will increasingly see the overlap of information technologies and biological technologies in terms of their impact.” Don’t be left behind.
Coffee
Scientists at the Nara Institute of Science and Technology in Japan have used genetic engineering to silence a gene that makes caffeine in coffee plants. The technique reduced caffeine in coffee plants by up to 70%. These scientists now hope to develop the technology in Arabica coffee. The GM coffee will be cheaper and retain all the taste of regular coffee, they claim.
Tobacco
A US/UK study has showed genetically engineered tobacco plants can produce human proteins to combat rabies. Scientists at Thomas Jefferson University in Philadelphia have successfully inserted DNA coding for the human antibody against rabies into tobacco plants. Separately, the light gene from a firefly has been put in a tobacco plant, which now lights up 24 hours a day.
Food tags
Scientists at the US National Center for Toxicological Research in Japan have designed a polymer disc that changes colour when exposed to vapours given off by rotting food. The discs contain organic dyes which change from clear to pink, blue or yellow depending on the type of food, showing whether the
food has gone off. The first disc they hope to launch is for frozen fish and shrimps, followed by one for frozen vegetables. The tags could be available in two years but may mean supermarkets could end up throwing away more spoiled food than they normally would.
Web armour
Spider silk is the strongest natural material and if it could be produced in enough quantity it could create powerful body armour, such as a bullet-proof vest, or tougher packaging. Scientists discovered
that spider silk is a protein similar to goats milk. After injecting a spider gene into a goat, the goat produces a protein identical to that found in a spider’s web. The protein is extracted from the goat’s milk and made into silk fibres called BioSteel, which can be used to make the vests.
Golden rice
The International Rice Research Institute hopes to make golden rice available to farmers by 2006. Golden rice is being heralded as a solution to malnutrition in developing countries.
It is rice fortified with betacarotene, which stimulates the production of Vitamin A in humans.
New energy source
Field experiments
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