Tightening supply across global banana supply chains is expected to accelerate over the next 12 months, producers have warned.
Challenging weather conditions, rising instances of plant disease, and increased demand are set to continue to impact the global banana market and ultimately drive up prices.
Climate change was now becoming “a major factor”, warned major banana producer Fyffes.
“Higher temperatures can reduce yields and increase the risk of sunburn damage to fruit, reducing supply which leads to higher prices,” said Sarah Hegarty, global director of communications at Fyffes. “Climate change is causing more frequent storms, droughts, and floods in banana-producing regions including Latin America.
“These events damage crops, disrupt logistics, and destroy infrastructure – leading to supply shortages and price volatility.”
Global banana shortage
Fyffes is not alone in experiencing these challenges, with Craig Elliott, editor at data provider Expana, saying “industry players broadly describe a global supply shortage”.
He explained that Costa Rica’s exports were down 20.7% year on year in H1 2025, which the National Banana Corporation (Corbana) attributed to the spread of black sigatoka disease and wet weather.
Black sigatoka is caused by a fungus and leads to leaf damage, reduced yields and poor fruit quality, added Hegarty, who said it meant expensive interventions were required, leading to increased production costs in the supply chain.
Corbana has forecast a recovery in H2 2025 but “projections for 2026 continue to anticipate below-average production levels”, said Elliott.
Read more: Global banana supply at risk as climate change hits producers
Climactic disruption and warming will continue to be relevant over the coming years, added Alistair Smith, international co-ordinator & executive director at workers’ rights NGO Banana Link.
“It is not just a short-term issue,” he said, with one supplier telling him that supply was expected to be short for the next two years.
However, Colombia is “exporting more than ever” he said, even though some growers are increasingly shifting sales to the US due to better prices and fewer quality demands.
Climate change also caused problems in Asia as Tropical Storm Wutip hit key regions during the harvest period.
“The storm’s path directly affected major banana-growing regions, causing significant damage to banana crops, including tree toppling, fruit drop and spoilage, leading to crop losses and price increases due to reduced supply,” said Hegarty. “China is increasingly looking to Latin America for banana supply, with a knock-on impact for European markets.”
Higher demand on the category is likely to continue but “industry players suggest that even if tight supply drives up prices, bananas will still continue to be one of the most affordable fruits”, said Elliott.
Banana sales continued to grow in the UK last year according to The Grocer’s Top Products report. In 2024, an extra 68.1 million units went through the tills as average retail prices fell.
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