“May you live in interesting times,” goes the ancient Chinese curse. Well, we can only hope times don’t get any more interesting than this.
Three years ago, the challenge was getting Brexit sorted. Find the way through new legislation, handle import/export changes and move forward in a new independent trading landscape. Then along came Covid – very left-field and incomparable to any previous commercial scenario. Then, as the vaccine cavalry began to win the war, Russia invaded Ukraine.
Without question, this has been the most turbulent period in my fairly lengthy career. One major crisis crashing into another. We’ve dealt with inflation before – and even inflation on inflation – interest rate rises, key ingredient shortages, fuel price hikes and staffing challenges. But in 2022, these are being conflated in a quite spectacular fashion. We’ve even had the fallout from the P&O debacle, which has thrown transportation of goods into chaos.
A common saying is that a rising tide floats all boats. But to quote Warren Buffett, when the tide goes out you see who’s been swimming naked. If ever senior managers needed to earn their salaries, it’s now. Almost anyone can run a good business when the tide is flowing in the right direction. But taking the analogy further, we are presently in a violent whirlpool, which is pulling businesses in all sorts of directions. Keeping afloat and away from the rocks is proving incredibly challenging.
It is a fast-changing and unpredictable commercial environment. We are operating in the face of inflation, which has yet to really reach the consumer. The fact is, businesses and consumers are pretty battered at present. We had all been holding on to the prospect that once the pandemic was under control we could look forward to a period of calm and prosperity. The horrors of Ukraine have dashed this expectation and again we are fighting on all fronts to deliver our commercial projections.
But now is not the time to hide or go into retreat. So, what should we do? We need to be courageous and decisive, not just to overcome the immediate problems confronting businesses, but also to continue making the sort of decisions vital for delivering success in the years ahead. Only then can we hope to survive and prosper.
In the case of St Pierre, I can’t pretend my decision to gamble on surging demand for our premium brioche brand and plan production for record levels of stock in 2022 was because I had a crystal ball and could foresee the latest crisis. I did it because I believe you need to be bold and prepared to put your money where your mouth is.
Earlier this month, we took the front cover of The Grocer to highlight that we had significant stocks of our range. We felt it was important to reassure the supermarkets we wouldn’t be letting them down and they could depend on us. That’s a first for me!
It was an acknowledgement that manufacturers aren’t the only ones having to cope with the pressures of continuing to produce under very challenging circumstances – retailers are on the frontline. Any interruption in the supply chain is laid bare, with empty shelves for all to see. That’s a scenario supermarkets want to avoid at all costs. Shoppers are even more judgmental in the face of unavailable products and any perceived shortage of products could trigger panic-buying.
In spite of all these challenges, my reading of the signs in these unsettled times is that demand is holding up. I think we are in for a summer characterised by strong consumer demand. There is so much pent-up desire to be free, to enjoy ourselves, and that means more parties and picnics. People will want to let off steam, enjoy their first free summer for two years, and indulge in affordable luxuries. As such, I reckon it will be a record year for our business in both the US and UK.
I vividly recall when I was approached to run Tyrrells crisps in the global financial crisis of 2008. Despite pressure on household budgets, I was confident premium food brands would still prosper thanks to the ’lipstick effect’.
John F Kennedy’s father raised him on the adage of ‘when the going gets tough, the tough get going’. In business today the need to be tough in spirit and action has never been more essential. Leadership will out.
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