Ocado shareholders were offered a glimmer of hope this week after the turmoil-hit group launched its first Korean robo-warehouse, hailed as a “major milestone” by chief revenue officer Nick de la Vega.
Shares soared nearly 25% in the week, reaching a seven-month high by Thursday.
Investor excitement was also whipped up by a JP Morgan upgrade, with the bank lifting its target price for shares from 245p to 290p. Analyst Marcus Diebel said he “liked the [Ocado] story” and added the current stock rating did not reflect the value of contracts the tech company has already signed, let alone anything new.
“Recent newsflow around the signing of a large, new customer fulfilment centre customer, alongside a more constructive tone from CEO Tim Steiner on our recent investor call, reinforces our view that momentum is improving and further deal wins are achievable,” Diebel added. “Volatility persists, but execution is improving.”
Diebel’s positivity around Ocado’s ability to outbid competitors and win deals touched on a crucial issue for investors: whether Ocado can make up for recent high-profile contract losses with new business wins.
The warehousing technology group has suffered notable setbacks over the past 12 months as North American supermarket chains Kroger and Sobeys closed down a combined total of four CFCs – a blow described at the time by Shore Capital analyst Clive Black as a “near knockout punch”.
The business has been further unsteadied by a boardroom battle between CEO Tim Steiner and chairman Adam Warby. Steiner held on to his position and will remain as CEO until the end of FY28 to help the board with succession planning.
Despite the many challenges, Ocado also announced a new contract to handle Asda’s entire online operation and signed a contract with an unnamed European retailer for between three and five CFC modules, set to go live in 2028.
Diebel said the European contract had been a “welcome surprise” when announced in July.
”In our view, it underlines the long-term value of Ocado’s traditional large-scale CFC offering, despite recent setbacks. Notably, depsite the implied additional capex for the new contract, management reiterated guidance to turn underlying cash flow positive during the second half of 2026, and to be positive on a full-year basis in FY2027.”
The group’s exclusivity agreements have now ended in most of its markets, opening up a wider range of potential customers.
Ocado has also been working on a £150m cost reduction programme to help shift it towards profitability and has set its sights on positive cashflow for FY2026.
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