A ‘Burnham bounce’ from the new prime minister has sparked the biggest jump in consumer confidence for almost three years, a closely watched survey revealed this morning.
The long-running index from market research firm GfK showed confidence climbed six points higher in July to –17 thanks to a mixture of the feel-good factor from the World Cup, a long run of hot weather, and new optimism in the economy as Andy Burnham moved into 10 Downing Street.
It is the largest increase in consumer confidence seen since November 2023.
All five measures looked at by GfK increased this month, but the biggest gain was recorded in the view of the general economic situation over the past year, which was up 10 points to –39. Consumers’ opinion of how the economy will perform in the coming 12 months also increased by eight points to –28.
There were also improvements for the personal financial situation of consumers in the past 12 months and year to come, while the major purchase index, giving an indication of spending plans, rose eight points and the savings index was up by seven points.
“Hot on the heels of the summer heatwaves, July has delivered a wave of optimism,” said Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK. “The sense of a fresh start following the appointment of a new prime minister surely accounts for some of this bounce.
“There were also hopes at the start of July that the Middle East conflict might stabilise and bring UK fuel prices down. The feel-good factor of the Fifa World Cup will have reinforced sentiment, too. However, July’s improved overall index score remains within the narrow range seen since the end of 2023, and it is a decade since the headline score was in positive territory.
“For the ‘Burnham bounce’ to be sustainable and boost consumer confidence, it will require consistent delivery by the refreshed UK government against deep cost of living challenges and persistent low economic growth.”
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