Retail sales have fared better than expected in the start of the Iran war, rising 0.7% in March.
A spike in fuel sales propelled the monthly rise past economists’ expectations, as motorists stocked up in advance of rising prices. A Reuters poll of economists had anticipated just 0.1% total volume growth.
ONS figures released this morning showed retail sales volumes bounce 0.7% in the month, up from a 0.6% fall in February. Excluding fuel, sales were up 0.2%, and in the quarter to March, sales were up 1.6% compared to Q4 2025.
Food was the only category to record a monthly fall in volumes, with a 0.8% drop in March. Total food volumes were flat on the quarter.
“Retailers will be encouraged to see a return to growth in March sales,” said Shopify managing director EMEA Deann Evans.
“This rebound suggests that while consumer confidence remains under scrutiny, spending has not stalled in tandem, and shoppers remain willing to engage where purchases feel timely and relevant.”
Shopify data showed significant rises in gardening and fashion sales, with shorts and crop tops recording triple-digit gains.
“It has been a varied start to the year for ONS retail sales figures, and brands will be seeking consistency in the months ahead. Encouragingly, retailers have an opportunity to build on March’s momentum by continuing to align their inventory with seasonal demand,” Evans added.
Despite the rise in March’s sales, consumer confidence has continued to fall, according to GfK’s barometer released this morning, maintaining a tightening squeeze on discretionary spend.
“There’s not a lot of confidence across the sector,” trade finance provider Treyd’s chief credit officer Justin Parr said.
“Many retail businesses began the year with too much stock. Some of those managed to shift it by discounting, before the start of the Iran conflict. Those that didn’t, though, are now in an unenviable position, with constrained cashflows and potentially limited warehouse space for new seasonable products.”
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