Donald Trump’s threat to impose 50% tariffs on the European Union is looming over businesses in Northern Ireland.
The US president had threatened to roll out the eye-watering tariffs from 1 June on goods coming from the bloc, but he has now pushed back the deadline until 9 July to allow more time for trade negotiations.
And while Trump and European Commission chief Ursula Von der Leyen both claimed to have had a fruitful call in which both parties agreed to advance talks “swiftly and decisively”, any changes to the current trade dynamic are set to have a great impact on NI businesses, experts have warned.
This is because Northern Ireland enjoys a dual-market access status under the Windsor Framework agreement, with any non-EU imports coming in through the country having to also abide by the bloc’s stricter rules to avoid a land border with the Republic of Ireland, which is in the EU’s single market for goods.
The rules could therefore see any reciprocal tariffs by the EU on US agrifood goods be applied to Northern Ireland, making it more expensive for businesses there to import from the US.
“Though there could be opportunities in the medium term for UK businesses exporting to the US which will not be liable to the 50% tariff, there is a considerable risk that in the short term the UK could be caught up in the tit-for-tat tariff exchange – in particular the effect on Northern Ireland”, said Marco Forgione, director general of the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade (CIOE&IT).
“The EU remains the UK’s largest trading partner by volume. A move of this scale could undermine stability across transatlantic supply chains, with early signs of disruption already visible as businesses race to ship goods before tariffs might apply.”
Recent Office for National Statistics data showed that UK exports to the US shot by £100m in March, just before president Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs were revealed, as British businesses rushed to beat the imposition of the hefty new fees.
“It’s like slapping a toll on the M1 during rush hour: it’s going to cause real disruption, and you’re going to have unexpected ramifications on the side roads as people try to work out how best to deal with these announcements,” Forgione added.
NI-based customs consultant Jonathan Walsh also warned of “repercussions” for the region’s businesses.
Read more: What does the EU-UK ‘reset’ mean for food & drink supply?
“Any countermeasures or rebalancing tariffs applied by the EU will also be applicable for NI importers as trade remedies make such imports automatically ‘at risk’ under the Windsor Framework”, meaning they face full tariffs and border controls, Walsh explained.
Additionally, “whilst NI exports to the US will be treated as UK origin, exporters must be able to demonstrate how they meet non-preferential origin requirements applied by Customs Border Protection (CBP) upon import inspection in the US”, he said.
Industry experts are concerned that businesses are unaware or unable to handle these complexities, which could have an impact on trade overall.
“Trade thrives on predictability. The prospect of sweeping tariffs on EU goods and Apple products introduces real uncertainty into the global system, and markets have already reacted,” Forgione said.
“If a company of [Apple’s] scale isn’t safe from sudden shifts in policy, it sends a concerning message to exporters everywhere. SMEs, in particular, don’t have the margins to absorb these kinds of shocks.”
There are still questions over what will happen once the new EU-UK SPS deal is implemented. Both regions will align on many food and agriculture rules, meaning UK importers could end up having to ask more of their US partners than they currently do.
It is also unclear how that will play out with the UK government’s own recent trade agreement with the US, which will enable greater market access to American agricultural goods.
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