Volatile oil prices amid Iran-Israel tensions threaten to drive up food and fertiliser prices and highlight the “urgent” need to delink food from fossil fuels, experts have warned.
A major new report from international experts at IPES-Food found that 40% of all global petrochemicals are now consumed by food systems, mainly through synthetic fertilisers and plastic packaging.
The findings come amid intense geopolitical instability in the Middle East and volatile oil prices. And with energy prices and food production being “deeply intertwined”, food and fertiliser prices could “soon be affected”, putting “millions at risk of hunger”, the report claimed.
Oil prices climbed 2% on Wednesday as investors assessed a shaky ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel.
Before that, prices had slightly dropped after rallying to five-month highs due to the strikes between the two countries and the involvement of the US in the attacks of Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend.
“While concerns regarding Middle Eastern supply have diminished for now, they have not entirely disappeared, and there remains a stronger demand for immediate supply,” according to IGN analysts.
Costs climb amid global tensions
Fertiliser prices too have begun to climb in light of the Middle East conflict, with some production in Iran and Egypt now shut, according to Bloomberg Intelligence expert Alexis Maxwell.
The Middle East region exports almost half of the global urea trade, which is the most commonly used nitrogen fertiliser. Global benchmark prices have jumped around 16% in the past week, Green Markets data shows, with prices likely to continue rising amid regional tensions.
IPES-Food found that 99% of synthetic nitrogen fertilisers and pesticides were derived from fossil fuels, and that one-third of petrochemicals went toward producing synthetic fertilisers – the biggest fossil fuel consumer in agriculture.
Food and drink packaging also accounted for at least 10% of global plastic use, with a further 3.5% used in agriculture, the report noted.
The group’s researchers warned that fossil fuel dependence was driving food insecurity, making the need to delink food from fossil fuels ever more urgent.
“Tethering food to fossil fuels means tying dinner plates to oil rigs and conflict zones,” said IPES-Food panel member Raj Patel.
“When oil prices rise, so does hunger – that’s the peril of a food system addicted to fossil fuels. Delinking food from fossil fuels has never been more critical to stabilise food prices and ensure people can access food.”
IPES-Food urged governments to “seize the opportunity at COP30 in Brazil to phase out fossil fuel and agrochemical subsidies, and shift food and farming toward agroecology, shorter supply chains, and resilient local food systems”.
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