Supermarkets are expected to win the battle for fuel spend as shoppers become more price‑conscious amid petrol and diesel price hikes driven by the Iran war.
According to Lumina Intelligence’s Forecourt Consumer Survey 2026, 80% of shoppers cited the price of fuel as their primary reason for choosing supermarkets over oil company‑branded sites.
It also found 49% of motorists chose supermarkets as their preferred forecourt, compared with 26% choosing Shell, 21% BP, 15% Esso and 11% Texaco.
With the government’s Fuel Finder scheme launching in February, followed by volatile wholesale costs for oil pushing up pump prices since the start of the conflict, Lumina said tracking prices had become “even more relevant”.
Its report showed 75% of motorists were ‘keeping a watch on their local forecourt for what they charge for fuel’, while half of those price watchers would ‘drive up to five miles to buy cheaper fuel’. A quarter would drive further, highlighting drivers’ commitment to find the best deals, it added.
“Motorists are increasingly gravitating towards supermarkets for fuel, and our latest Forecourt Report 2026 confirms that price is the overwhelming driver of this shift,” said Lumina Intelligence head of insight Andy Crossan.
“With fuel costs rising due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, and the introduction of tools such as Fuel Finder making price comparison easier, drivers are becoming even more price‑conscious.
“Supermarkets’ ability to offer consistently lower prices means they are well‑positioned to gain further share, particularly as consumers monitor local pricing more closely and are willing to travel for the best deal.
“While branded oil sites continue to compete on convenience, food‑to‑go and service quality, value at the pump remains the decisive factor influencing motorists’ choice of forecourt in 2026.”
The new data comes as petrol and diesel pump prices continue to climb. According to the RAC, average petrol prices have grown by 15% since the start of the conflict to 152.83p per litre (31 March), while diesel has increased by 28.4% to 182.77p.
Soaring pump prices triggered a 500% surge in downloads for fuel price comparison app PetrolPrices as motorists sought out the best deals, as revealed by The Grocer last week.
PetrolPrices sales director Clare Lafferty said varying pump prices were influenced by a range of factors, including wholesale supply costs, location, and operating costs.
She added that while transparency and growing consumer awareness of forecourt pricing comparisons didn’t remove those factors, it could increase competitive pressure.
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