Every major UK grocery retailer seems hell-bent on chasing volume right now. Morrisons, Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda, Aldi, and Lidl are all pushing aggressive pricing and member offers in an effort to snatch unit sales. Meanwhile total volume in the UK is flatlining.
With real wages remaining under pressure, Kantar data shows unit sales have been declining or stagnating year on year. In June 2025, volumes dropped 0.4%, despite sales value increasing by over 4%, so inflation is at work, not consumption.
Volume is a zero-sum game right now. This spate of activity is a simple share grab with no net extra for suppliers, who are being pushed into deeper discounts, more aggressive promotional calendars, and unsustainable price points.
Loyalty cards don’t build loyalty
All the while, retailers themselves are doing just about everything they can to undermine their own shopper loyalty. Loyalty cards don’t build loyalty anymore, they’re just levers to deliver promotional discounts, and don’t shoppers know it – more than half of consumers now actively shop around between multiple loyalty schemes, comparing prices like stock traders. There are minimal genuine loyalty mechanisms, just a constant recalculation of perceived savings.
In addition to their race to undercut each other, retailers are simultaneously stripping out the only other things that create real shopper loyalty: in-store surprise and delight, cafés that give tired shoppers a reason to stay longer, in-store bakeries with real smell, real warmth, real theatre. Remember sampling, event days, and human interaction?
These were the touchpoints that made a store memorable and created genuine emotional loyalty. It’s seemingly all but gone now – too expensive or difficult to scale, not “efficient” enough, leaving stores with a bland, transactional environment where shoppers grab what’s cheapest and leave without a second thought. No brand affinity, no store loyalty, just price, price, price.
From a supplier’s point of view this zero-sum game involves discounting to fund volume gains that aren’t there, losing margin while retailers cannibalise one another. The growth potential isn’t in more units sold.
Retailers are treating suppliers as tactical tools, but it’s time to refocus on driving greater value per customer. That includes innovating around premium, health, indulgence, and sustainability. It means investing in store environments that inspire. It means partnerships that drive category value, not just unit uplift.
The market needs volume that sticks, not just shifts around the retail base. Suppliers are ready to co-create value, but the current mechanisms are all wrong. It would be easy to reintroduce a focus on loyalty, but these tactics take longer to work and retailers risk losing out if competition doesn’t follow. There is FOMO on quick price cuts, so suppliers are being dragged into short-term strategies.
Until retailers shift from this obsession with basket size and move to basket quality, they are just going to keep chasing ghosts.
David Sables, CEO of Sentinel Management Consultants
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