Veterans of the deposit return scheme debate are so scarred by history that only when the hordes have been habitually visiting supermarkets with their bottles and cans for months will they truly believe it is up and running.

So news of a potentially momentous breakthrough, with the Welsh government offering hope of a UK-wide launch going ahead in October 2027, comes with a reverse vending machine full of provisos.

The Grocer revealed on Friday that Welsh deputy first minister Huw Irranca-Davies had offered a “compromise deal” that supporters hope could salvage the chances of a four nations’ approach, which so many believe is vital for DRS to succeed.

Irranca-Davies announced Wales was “willing to accelerate” its timetable to align with the rest of the UK, having “clearly heard from industry” about the potentially disastrous impact on the costs and complexities of a DRS solution without such a common approach.

That is, without question, a big breakthrough. It certainly signals a change of heart from his shock announcement in November that Wales was pulling the plug on talks over the UK government’s refusal to back down on including glass in its scheme under the rules of devolution.

Compromise and complications

After the debacle in Scotland, Wales was now well and truly the focus of fears that an interoperable DRS would remain but a pipe dream.

However, while Friday now sees a return of the spirit of compromise, it only goes so far.

Wales continues to insist glass remains a key part of its deposit scheme. Industry sources claim its suggested compromise is so full of complications that it could take 10 years to introduce, let alone 27 months.

The idea is that glass bottles will still be included in the Welsh return to store DRS system, but – to begin with at least – without the need for customer deposits and with no additional labelling required.

It claims that by not requiring customers to fork out up front and forgoing the need for new labels, this solution, alongside the already successful Welsh kerbside collections, could prevent a logistical nightmare for drinks companies. It would also, the Welsh government says, avoid the possibility of different operating requirements leading to industrial-scale fraud.

However, industry sources argue that if a deposit is removed, so too is the incentive for customers to make the trip to stores to return their glass bottles. With Welsh recycling rates for glass already over 90%, why should households want to use a store model instead?

The Welsh government’s compromise also insists retailers use a ’soft drop’ reverse vending machine (RVM), meaning bottles can be reused, rather than broken up.

Shifting to a reuse economy in this way has been talked up by the likes of Wrap and remains a key demand of environmental campaigners. It seems to have a lot going for it, but in reality has supermarkets and drinks bosses pulling their hair out as this type of RVM needs massive storage space, compared with a more basic system.

Sources claim that with no deposit incentive or labelling communication, Welsh shoppers would be unlikely to use the expensive, cumbersome machines. 

While some countries, including Germany, use soft drop technology, it has taken decades to develop. Experts say the UK lacks both the capacity for producing reusable glass at scale, as well as the space and investment needed in stores to provide such facilities.

“The Welsh compromise suggestion would mean retailers having to install “massively over-spec return mechanisms with huge spaces in store for returned bottles which probably won’t materialise in practice”, says a source. “We are talking about giant spaces the same size as four or five garages.”

Meanwhile, for producers, sources say the impact of a lack of consumer deposit would also result in huge producer fees (and that’s before we even get to extended producer responsibility payments).

‘Pure fantasy’

In terms of the environmental benefit, it’s very hard to see how the DRS would increase already-high recycling rates for glass in Wales, says the source.

“Soft drop glass is a great solution when we have reusable glass to create a more circular economy. But this solution ignores the fact that there is no reusable production capacity at the moment.

“There is no point in having those if the industry isn’t able to produce reusable glass. That is a solution which is going to involve a 10-year transition… It’s never going to happen for October 2027. It’s just pure fantasy.”

The other massive ’glass elephant’, of course, comes in the shape of the UK internal market act, the very same piece of legislation that finally put paid to Scotland’s hopes of launching the first DRS in 2023.

“Will UK government give Wales an exemption from glass?” asks another doubtful DRS source.

“We simply do not have the answer to that. It would be a very high, cabinet-level decision, involving more than one UK government department, not just Defra, and it’s likely there will be two or three months before there is clarity about any exemption.”

With supermarket bosses having already initially ruled out an October 2027 start date as “impossible”, these delays, on top of the practical problems posed by the Welsh suggested solution, make Labour’s start date even more precarious.

However, the source adds; “There is a small possibility that Wales could get an exemption.

“There is therefore a very small possibility that Wales could have a DRS in place by 2027. Single-use glass would be in scope, but reusable glass would not be. Reuse is very much a long-term ambition.”

The clock is ticking, not just because of the October 2027 deadline, but the looming Welsh government elections next May.

And with the polls predicting a strong showing for Reform, hardly a pro-environmental, DRS die-hard brigade, some suggest Irranca-Davies ought to start throwing out a few more compromises in quick if he really wants DRS to get off the ground in Wales at the same time as the rest.

As for what happens next, the history of DRS suggests it is anyone’s guess.

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