Food exporters are battling “uncertainty, confusion, and disappointment” as they look to devise a strategy to deal with Donald Trump’s increasingly erratic tariff policy.
The White House has said it now seeking 90 trade deals in 90 days after Trump placed blanket tariffs of at least 10% on nearly every country, before issuing a 90-day pause on most of them last week.
“My immediate reaction is to give the shrug emoji because who knows what the f*** is going on,” said Olly Dixon, co-founder of premium soda brand Something & Nothing, which raised £2m last month to help accelerate its US expansion plans.
For organic goods manufacturer Ecotone, the US is its largest international market having invested heavily to expand its presence over recent years. It gained new national listings for its brands Clipper Teas and Mrs Crimble’s at the end of 2024, and has now built high-growth expectations into its forecasts.
But Trump’s tariffs will hit it with “hundreds of thousands of dollars” in extra costs over the next few years, said Ben Dell, Ecotone’s head of international markets, and a decision to be made on how to react.
“Due to the scale, if nothing changes and there’s no trade agreement between the UK and US, then almost certainly us and many other brands will have to pass on those costs to the consumer.”
The other challenge for Ecotone is that it’s paying tariffs on some products already. Its herbal teas, for example, are charged around 6.4% for entering the US but it’s unclear whether the minimum 10% means that rises to 10% or 16.4%.
“That lack of clarity makes it quite difficult to do any planning,” said Dell. “It’s a real mix of uncertainty, confusion and disappointment at the moment.”
Since Trump’s initial announcement on tariffs, many businesses have begun to consider reshaping their supply chain to move some production over to the US. But finding a co-packer or manufacturing option is tricky at the moment, with waiting lists shooting up and minimum volume requirements much greater than they were a short time ago, according to Jim Kilmer of the US-based Opal Group on a Food & Drink Exporters Association webinar last week.
Many are therefore just preparing to plough on as planned. Sprits group Distil, for example, announced this week it was restarting sales to the US sales of its Blavod Black Vodka in spite of the tariff uncertainty.
“From a planning point of view, we are assuming tariffs will remain in place for the foreseeable future,” said Don Goulding, Distil’s executive chairman. “Current levels are manageable, with a benefit across the supply chain should they be lifted.”
US importers insist nothing will change in terms of their demand, according to David Hill, managing director at Cocoda, an export agency for confectionery brands, “so it’s probably just sped us up trying to get as much as we can on the water to ship to the US inside the next 90 days”.
Ultimately, in light of the other headwinds battering British businesses at the moment, an extra charge of 10% on US imports means that tariffs are, for now at least, still low down on many companies’ priorities list.
“There’s not a great deal we can do,” said Pev Manners, managing director of Belvoir Farm. “The biggest threat to our business is not Trump’s tariffs, it’s the government’s misguided EPR [extended producer responsibility] legislation. That’s far worse. 10% on our sales to United States – we sell about £2m – so that’s about £200k. EPR is going to cost us over a million.”
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