Volumes have gone into reverse at UK supermarkets for the first time since Easter as sales slowed considerably at the tail end of summer, according to the latest industry data.
Total till sales at the major mults increased just 1.8% in the four weeks to 5 September, compared with a 3.2% rise over the 12 weeks to 8 August. NIQ said cooler weather and the return of back-to-school routines brought a reset in shopping behaviour following one of the hottest summers on record.
Unit sales declined 0.1% in the four-week period, the first time volumes have declined since the April as the fading impact of the summer and World Cup led to lower alcohol and ice cream sales.
Across all supermarkets and convenience stores, sales increased 2% in the month. The strongest growth was recorded over the August bank holiday weekend when sales rose 3.1% in the week ending 29 August and peaked at £4.25bn.
NIQ added there was also a shift in where shoppers chose to buy their groceries. Sales at larger supermarkets increased 2.4%, while growth across convenience stores slowed to 0.3% as consumers returned to more planned shopping trips following the summer holiday period.
Over the latest 12 weeks, Ocado (+17.4%) and M&S (+10.8%) continued to lead grocery growth. Lidl also maintained strong sales momentum (+7.7%), followed by Waitrose (+2.6%).
Tesco sales rose 2.4% and Sainsbury’s was up 2.5%, while Morrisons registered growth of 2% and Aldi managed just 0.1%. However, Asda, which recently boasted of a return to growth, continued to see declines, down 1.3% in the 12 weeks.
“Following one of the hottest summers on record, which encouraged consumers to spend more freely, September is likely to mark a return to tighter household budgeting,” said Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NIQ.
“Currently, one in three households cite the cost of living as their biggest concern, while almost three-quarters expect to be moderately or severely impacted by financial pressures as we move into the autumn and winter months. With children now back at school, consumers are likely to enter a period of reassessing priorities, taking stock of finances, and monitoring spending more closely.
“Looking ahead, increased consumer scrutiny of spending creates the potential for greater price sensitivity and promotional intensity. As retailers enter the golden quarter, they will need to work harder and smarter to drive volume growth.
“This could involve encouraging shoppers to trade up through stronger mission-led propositions, leveraging personalisation to align with consumer values, and ensuring that festive marketing campaigns resonate with increasingly price-conscious consumers. By striking the right balance between value, relevance, and engagement, retailers can maximise opportunities during the critical run-up to Christmas.”
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