Climate-affected foods are driving food inflation, according to research from the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit.
Foods hit by extreme weather are rising over two times faster than the rest of the food basket, its analysis found.
Butter, beef, milk, coffee and chocolate make up just 11% of the average shopping basket, but have accounted for 30%-40% of all food price inflation for much of the past two years.
The ECIU explained that if it wasn’t for this small group, food inflation would have been broadly in line with the Bank of England’s 2% target.
The group peaked at 16% in July 2025, over six times higher than the average 2.6% average inflation rate for all other food and drink.
“Food prices are on track to be 50% higher than when the cost of living crisis began in mid‑2021, while energy, insurance and water have already reached that milestone,” said Chris Jaccarini, land, food and farming analyst at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit.
“While wage bills and regulation play a role, they don’t explain why coffee, chocolate or milk prices have surged. Climate shocks do – and until we stabilise the climate, households will keep paying the price.”
He urged that society breaks the link with fossil fuels and reach net zero otherwise “these pressures will intensify”.
“Only net zero can bring the climate back into balance and protect us from whims of Putin and Trump.”
In 2022–23, climate impacts added an estimated £360 to the average UK household food bill. This figure is expected to deepen, according to government forecasts.
The organisation warned: “Central banks are clear that climate change increases food prices in ways they cannot control or predict, creating systemic risk to our food system.”
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