Former government health tsar Henry Dimbleby’s Bramble Intelligence has published a list of the 40 companies it thinks will survive an “unprecedented” reshaping of diets and the food industry.
The Bramble 40 lists retailers, tech companies and manufacturers it believes are best placed to ride out the storm in a future Dimbleby argues “has already arrived” but will go on to sweep aside existing sales models.
A companion piece of research called Tomorrow’s Appetites warns that “the barbarians are at the gate” and that appetite-suppressing drugs, artificial intelligence and diet-related diagnostic technology will lead to the arrival of new players from outside the traditional food sector.
“Not since the rise of the supermarkets in the 1970s have we seen anything like the change that is reshaping the food industry, and that was from within,” said Dimbleby. “This time it is forces from outside the food industry that are reshaping what people eat – those three big forces will lead to a redistribution of profits the food industry has not seen for over half a century.”
Bramble estimates that by 2035 the UK will eat 5% fewer calories and warned that if food companies do not adapt, this drop in volume alone will mean a £3bn-£6bn loss in UK grocery sales in real terms, and a hit to operating profits in grocery of up to 35%.
It argues that to survive, food companies must now work out how to respond to the threat. However, it says the companies that will flourish will be those that make it easy to eat well, provide food that nourishes, ingredients people can trust and that can thrive in the “diet and health feedback loop”.
The Bramble Intelligence 40 includes early-stage innovators and tech giants such as Google. UK companies include Yeo Valley, Pip & Nut and Bold Bean Co.
However, international giants are also featured, including Walmart for its Sparky AI shopping assistant, ChatGPT Health and TikTok.
“The Bramble Intelligence 40 is a showcase of companies – from early-stage innovators to giants such as Google – moving to capture the biggest shift of profits in food since the rise of the supermarkets,” said managing partner Chris Mitchell. “We’ve chosen companies bringing fresh ideas to these new sources of growth – varied in size, scope and model, not all guaranteed to succeed, but each has rising revenue, growing users or a large installed base.”
Dimbleby added: “This showcase is anchored in the UK and US, with examples from Asia and Europe. One section is UK-only by design, showing category-defining British food brands.” “As volume falls, food companies will have only three sources of growth: win market share in food, sell more nonfood products, or pull off the magic trick of redefining value by selling lower volumes of food for greater revenue.
“The winners will not be the companies that talk most loudly about health. They will be the ones that can still make money when people buy fewer calories, and whose products and services are easy for consumers, AI tools to recognise as delicious, good value, filling, nutritious and genuinely better for health.”
No comments yet