Retail peaks put every supply chain under pressure. These three lessons will help you manage demand, protect your consumer promise and maintain performance when it matters most.
Peak periods are becoming increasingly difficult to predict. This summer brought a combination of prolonged heatwaves, major sporting events and rapidly shifting consumer demand patterns, creating a more volatile operating environment than many retailers are accustomed to.
In DHL’s convenience operations, demand rose by 4-6%, with peak days surging by as much as 17%. Frozen product demand increased by up to 48% ahead of the World Cup semi-final. Despite the volatility, service levels remained strong, with the network ending the peak period with a higher Net Promoter Score than it started.
Underlining an important point, resilience should not mean accepting a lower standard of service when pressure increases. From that experience, there are three lessons retailers should consider as they prepare for Christmas.
1. Forecast for demand, plan for change
Forecasting remains critical. The strongest plans combine multiple data sources, from historic sales and weather patterns to customer loyalty insights, to create a robust view of expected demand.
But forecasting alone is not enough: the retailers and supply chain teams that performed best this summer were those able to adapt quickly when actual demand differed from expectations.
For Christmas, retailers should:
- Treat forecasts as a guide rather than a fixed plan
- Review assumptions regularly during the peak period
- Define clear trigger points for escalation, plan changes and resource reallocation
- Build flexibility into labour, transport and replenishment plans
- Be ready to respond quickly when consumer behaviour changes
2. Build resilience before you need it
Peak performance is often judged by volume, but it is usually the unexpected moments that define success. During the summer, increased demand for frozen within one of DHL’s biggest operations created an immediate challenge to product availability. Teams responded quickly, drawing on expertise and flexible labour, transport and driver capacity across the DHL network to minimise disruption.
As Mark Patterson, chief commercial officer at DHL explains: “Resilience is built before disruption happens. During peak periods, the ability to draw quickly on capacity and expertise from across a wider network can make the difference between a contained issue and a significant impact on service. That flexibility needs to be planned, tested and ready to activate.”
Christmas planning must consider potential disruption as well as expected demand. Retailers and their supply chain partners should ask:
- How will we respond if equipment fails?
- What action will we take if demand exceeds expectations?
- Where can we access alternative storage, labour and transport capacity?
- Are escalation routes clear across the organisation?
- How quickly can decisions be made during an incident?
3. Protect the customer promise under pressure
Customers do not see the operational complexity behind retail supply chains. Whether the challenge is extreme heat, a major sporting event or an unexpected disruption, they expect products to be available when and where they need them.
Retailers are operating in an environment where customers have more choice than ever. If products are not available shoppers can switch quickly. Our consumer survey The Availability Effect found 44% of shoppers switched supermarkets within a year due to stock gaps. That is why resilience and responsiveness have become just as important as efficiency during peak periods.
Maintaining customer trust during peak periods increasingly depends on visibility, responsiveness and strong collaboration between retailers and their supply chain partners.
The operational challenge may change, but the customer promise does not. Protecting that promise requires teams to identify issues early, communicate openly and maintain service under pressure.
Peak readiness is a year-round capability
The biggest lesson I took from this summer is that peak readiness is no longer about preparing for a single event. It is a capability that retailers and their supply chain partners must build throughout the year.
Forecasting provides direction, agility ensures plans can change. Contingency planning creates resilience, while visibility and genuine collaboration protect availability, service and the customer experience.
Retailers that can adapt quickly, respond confidently and maintain service as conditions change will be best placed to succeed this Christmas and beyond.
Learn more about DHL’s expertise in retail and grocery logistics.
Words by Spencer Conday, managing director, retail and ecommerce, at DHL.
