A predicted Super El Niño could put global coffee supplies under “unprecedented pressure” and threaten the livelihood of some 50 million smallholder farmers globally, DTC coffee supplier Pact has warned.
El Niño weather conditions are looking increasingly likely to occur this summer, and the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit has flagged coffee as among the UK food imports most at risk from disruption.
“El Niño’s effects vary by region,” said Will Corby, director of coffee and social impact at Pact Coffee. “Central and South America typically see drier conditions, while east Africa is likely to see erratic rainfall and flooding.”
These weather extremes were likely to “significantly lessen yields” from coffee crops in these areas, “causing a significant decrease in income for thousands of growers”, Corby warned.
And with commodity prices for arabica coffee having dropped from over $4 to $2.40 per between December 2025 and June 2026, some smallholder farmers would be forced to sell their crops at a loss, he predicted.
“When coffee is your primary source of income, it’s not viable to wait until the commodity market is at a historic high to sell your coffee,” he said. “So, even in years without extreme shifts in weather patterns, many growers are forced to sell at a loss.
“Growers in South America, for example, could see yields fall by 30%-50% as a result of this year’s El Niño. That’s a huge hit on their profit margin.”
The impact of a possible El Niño weather event reinforce the need for coffee suppliers to form “mutually beneficial relationships with growers” Corby said.
“If you’re buying coffee for as cheap as possible on a commodity market, with no acknowledgement of the grower or the storm they’re weathering in the face of changing climates and weather patterns, the benefit is entirely one-sided,” he said. “Coffee companies were forced to pay above the cost of production for beans for almost the entirety of 2025. If they’re still trading, they made that work.
“Now the market has dipped, it’s down to them to do that on a voluntary basis to support growers as they face an incredibly tough series of harvests.”
Pact Coffee sells speciality grade coffee in whole bean, ground and pod formats via DTC as well as in Waitrose stores and on Ocado.
Its model is based on the principle of trading directly with farmers rather than buying on open commodity markets, while typically also paying a premium on Fairtrade base price.
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