Guinness boom ends as sales surge subsides

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Guinness Pack Shot

A four-pack of Guinness costs 53p more than it did a year ago [Assosia]

Guinness’ remarkable growth tear in the off-trade appears to be over, according to new data.

The Diageo-owned stout was one of the biggest winners in The Grocer’s Britain’s Biggest Alcohol Brands report 2025, after sales surged £29.7m on volumes up 12.6% [NIQ 52 w/e 19 April 2025].

Buoyed by its popularity on social media and with younger drinkers, the brand has increased its market share in off-trade beer from 3.2% in 2023 to over 4% by early 2025, according to Bernstein analysis of NIQ data.

However, this growth has since tailed off and volumes have slumped. They’re down 5% over the past 26 weeks, and 7.4% in the past 12 weeks compared to last year [NIQ 26 w/e 12 July 2025].

Chief culprit for the decline is Guinness’ flagship Draught Stout, which has only mustered value growth of 0.8% – on volumes down 5.2% – in the past six months. In the most recent 12 weeks, it is in both value and volume decline.

Guinness 0.0%, however, continues to perform strongly. Its sales are up 37.4% on volumes up 17.1% over the past 12 weeks. The alcohol-free version of Guinness is now worth £48.4m, and accounts for around a fifth of all Guinness sales by value in the off-trade [NIQ 52 w/e 12 July 2025].

Promotional activity paused

The slump reflected a “temporary pause” on off-trade promotions for Guinness earlier this year, a Diageo spokesman said.

The decision to stop promoting Guinness was made in response to “unprecedented consumer demand in December 2024” and was “necessary to ensure maximum availability for our customers and consumers”, the spokesman said.

Since resuming promotional activity on Guinness earlier this month, the brand was back in value growth, they pointed out, citing NIQ data [4 w/e 9 August 2025].

Prices of Guinness have shot up across the mults in the past year. A 4x440ml pack of Guinness Draught now commands an average pre-promotional price of £5.90 across Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Morrisons and Waitrose, 53p higher than a year ago [Assosia 52 w/e 13 August 2025].

Rival stout BrewDog Black Heart, meanwhile, comes out cheaper at an average of £5.29 per 4x440ml pack.

Guinness’ importance to Diageo

Guinness sales in the UK are over-weighted toward the on-trade, where the stout remains the number one brand with a market share of 17.5%, according to Diageo.

Nonetheless, the slump in off-trade volumes will be of concern, given the importance of the Guinness brand to Diageo’s domestic business. The London-listed supplier reported a 3.5% increase in revenues in Great Britain in the year ended 30 June 2025, citing “double-digit organic net sales growth in Guinness” which helped to offset “overall category weakness” in spirits.

“Grocery continues to be a central growth driver for Guinness in Great Britain, and we have ambitious category plans for the year ahead,” the Diageo spokesman added.