We need to talk about what the right health targets are and how we hit them

Is anyone convinced that changes to the nutrient profiling model – used to decide which foods are HFSS – will move the needle on the obesity crisis?

The government’s plans are based on a 2015 scientific report recommending that free sugars should make up no more than 5% of daily calorie intake. And under Wes Streeting’s 10 year NHS plan, it’s vowed to push ahead with the proposals regardless. However, the new DHSC impact assessment it’s published on the proposals is a shambles and has been rightly slammed as “not fit for purpose” by experts.

Of course it’s easy to claim vested interests are at work here. But it doesn’t take a scientist, economist or minister to find alarming weaknesses in the assessment. As critics point out there are nearly 150 assumptions in the impact assessment, including the mind-blowing assumption “that consumers will substitute ‘less healthy’ products impacted by the policy with healthier alternatives” and a terrifying admission “we have not investigated how this might vary by product category or how available like-for-like substitutions will be for the product categories in scope”.

This sort of ‘back of a fag packet’ justification is simply not good enough given the vast cost of the proposed reclassification – for consumers struggling with the cost of living but also the industry – and its impact on growth and innovation. But few in the industry would argue with the government’s NPM switch if the government presented proper evidence that it would move the needle. In fact, supermarkets themselves have been leading calls for a more transparent system of health reporting, underpinned by the NPM.

What no one wants, however, is for wholesale upheaval knowing that in all likelihood the proposed changes won’t make the slightest difference and will more likely add to consumer confusion and detachment.

That’s also one of the reasons why The Grocer is hosting a Health Summit. The one-day conference will cover a huge variety of issues and opportunities, but above all we want a grown-up conversation about what the targets should be to achieve lasting, measurable change, based on the most up-to-date and rigorously researched evidence. That’s a target we can all surely agree on.

To find out more about the Health Summit and book your ticket, visit the event website here.