UK food inflation is set to rise by 34% over the next couple of decades due to the climate crisis.
New research from the Autonomy Institute has warned that while UK inflation unexpectedly hit 3.6% in June, worse is yet to come.
The ‘On the Horizon: Climate-Induced Inflation and the Price of Food’ report projects an impending “climateflation” crisis that could drive food prices up by 34% by 2050, pushing 951,000 more people into poverty without state intervention.
The report has revealed how extreme weather, particularly heatwaves and droughts, will disrupt food production in the UK and abroad, which will drive up costs in a country that imports nearly half its food.
It comes as this year’s hot weather has driven earlier harvests and has increased the risk of wildfires.
The research organisation has warned that the UK government’s planning to develop resilience in food systems “remains dangerously inadequate”.
It found that import dependency makes the UK vulnerable to climate shocks abroad while domestic farming was also under pressure.
It also found that heatwaves alone could push nearly one million more people into poverty by 2050 and that food inflation was now closely tracking global temperatures.
“Without proactive intervention, rising heatwaves and droughts could drive food prices up by a third by mid-century,” said Will Stronge, chief executive at the Autonomy Institute. “Climateflation is no longer a distant risk, it’s a present reality.”
The organisation has called on the government to expand public service provision to incorporate food.
Measures suggested include a basket of basic essentials delivered to every household in the UK, publicly-funded diners providing hot meals, a national buffer stock to stabilise prices during disruption, price controls on essential foods and investment in agroecological farming and a basic income for farmers.
“We need to build real economic resilience – and that means rethinking what public service provision can and should provide in the face of climate disruption: from delivery of basic essentials, to publicly-funded diners and a national buffer stock,” Stronge added.
The research used climate data, international and domestic trade analysis, advanced economic modelling, and household-level microsimulations to assess the socioeconomic impact of global warming.
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