The upcoming El Niño weather event confirmed by the World Meteorological Organization is expected to challenge already strained food supplies, experts have warned.
The WMO confirmed El Niño conditions are developing and have an 80% likelihood of occurring during the summer.
The UN agency projected that while uncertainty remains about its strength and timing, most models suggest it will be “at least moderate – and possibly strong”.
“The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” said UN secretary-general António Guterres. “Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.”
He urged for the ending of our “addiction” to fossil fuels as the only solution to this “crisis”.
The shifting weather patterns are anticipated to highly impact UK food supply over the summer.
“With global food supplies already under heavy strain from climate change and strangled fertiliser supply flows in the Strait of Hormuz, confirmation of El Niño is bad news,” said Gareth Redmond-King, head of international at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit. “It will turbocharge climate change by adding more heat to natural systems, further disrupting weather, and intensifying already dangerous extremes in many parts of the world.”
He added: “The havoc El Niño will wreak as it likely delivers another hottest year in 2027 will be devastating for many farmers, and a question of life or death for far too many people.”
As a country the UK is reliant on imports for two-fifths of its food supply and has faced three of the worst harvests in England in the past five years.
Nigel Jenney, CEO of the Fresh Produce Consortium, said the issue “reinforces the need to be flexible with our international supply routes”.
Expana warned last month that El Niño conditions could increase the chance of droughts, floods and heatwaves across multiple regions worldwide.
“Because agriculture depends heavily on consistent weather conditions, these disruptions can reverberate through food production systems, affecting crop yields, supply availability, and export markets,” the organisation said.
While it noted there would likely be minor impact on Europe, core markets like Africa, South America and Asia are anticipated to be more negatively impacted.
As Professor Richard Allan of the University of Reading warned: “Although El Niño does not have a noticeable influence on the British climate, because it disrupts weather patterns globally the damage from heatwave, drought and deluge across the world will affect the UK through economic and humanitarian factors.”
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