Valentine’s Day spending will rise by 12% to £1.6bn, with all categories set to enjoy a boost, according to forecasts from shopper marketing agency Savvy.
The highest growth categories are set to be non-alcoholic drinks (15%), beauty (17%), clothing and flowers. Food and alcoholic drinks are set to rise by 5% and 3% respectively, Savvy said.
Some 42% of the adult population will celebrate Valentine’s Day on Saturday, according to Savvy’s research with 1,000 adults.
Over three-quarters (77%) of them plan to dine at home with their partner. Two-thirds said they would be prepared to trade up to premium food or drink for the occasion, but not at the expense of value; the same amount said they would actively look for discounts or deals on food and drink in the run-up to 14 February.
When asked what they would most like to see from their main supermarket in the run-up to Valentine’s Day, nearly half (49%) said they will be looking for a Valentine’s meal deal. A third (32%) also wanted a dedicated Valentine’s Day aisle to make shopping easier.
This is the first Valentine’s Day since new HFSS regulations banned adverts online and before a 9pm TV watershed for “less healthy” foods. Savvy predicts that off screen won’t mean out of mind for chocolate lovers; sales are forecast to rise by an inflation-fuelled 18%.
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“Our online retail audit reveals that brands have quickly adapted by leveraging distinctive brand assets, such as colours, logos and broader cues, without directly featuring restricted products – and this approach appears to be working well, with our research finding very few shoppers notice any change,” said Alastair Lockhart, insight director at Savvy. “For affected brands, these new restrictions mean a greater emphasis on owned channels and in-store media, and a rethink of how paid-for digital activity is executed.”
The research found three in five shoppers plan to buy a personalised gift. Online specialists dominate this space, but Savvy said Tesco’s Marketplace was a good example of how major retailers have expanded into personalised gifts.
Almost half (48%) of Valentine’s shoppers say they are likely to buy a product they see on social media, while 41% expect to use AI tools to help choose gifts, from a standing start just a couple of years ago.
Lockhart added: “AI is rapidly reshaping how shoppers search for gift inspiration, often introducing them to brands and routes to market they may not have previously considered. As a result, retailers and brands need to think differently about how they appear in AI-driven discovery, how they show up and how they can close the sale. The rulebook is being rewritten.”
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