The proposed sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) agreement with the EU could save as much as £88m a year for British meat exporters, and act as a “market access enabler” by reviving trade that has slumped since Brexit, new research claims.
Analysis of non-tariff measure (NTM) data by agricultural consultancy The Andersons Centre revealed meat exporters faced a cost of more than £200 per tonne from chilled meat shipments to the bloc under the current regime, with border checks and certification delays eroding value and disrupting access to key European markets.
Drawing on NTM data from a previous project led by Andersons for Defra last year, the consultancy found the SPS deal – which is currently under negotiation with the EU – could deliver annual savings for meat exporters of between £44m in a ‘medium’ red tape scenario. Savings across key meat categories would increase to £88m per year in a worst-case ‘high’ scenario – where SPS-related costs accounted for 60% of all NTM costs, said Andersons partner Michael Haverty.
Gains would not only come from cutting border bureaucracy, but also by enabling new trade flows that had become unviable – echoing recent comments from major hauliers, such as Toby Ovens, MD of haulage firm Broughton Transport, who told The Grocer in February that his business had lost as much as £250,000 due to delays and red tape over the past year.
Post-Brexit border issues had also led to a significant contraction in the number of logistics companies exporting meat to the EU, said Ovens in a Commons Business and Trade Committee hearing in January.
But under Andersons’ modelling, new opportunities could soon be available to the sector once the SPS deal came into force, Haverty argued.
Indirect benefits from a boost in cross-border trade was measured at £49.8m, versus £38.0m in red tape cost reductions in the ‘high’ friction scenario.
“This underlines that an SPS agreement is not simply a cost reduction exercise for existing trade. It is a market access enabler that would stimulate trade that is not currently happening,” Haverty said.
The largest beneficiaries in both scenarios were the chilled pigmeat categories, with cured pigmeat alone accounting for savings of £11.4m (in a previously medium-friction scenario) and £20.5m (for a high-friction scenario).
Premium chilled beef and lamb each delivered potential gains of more than £17m a year in a previously high-friction scenario, reflecting their sensitivity to delays and the risk of missing key market windows on the continent.
Haverty also suggested these estimates were “likely conservative”, due to the data not including the costs borne by EU importers since 2021, the implications of the Windsor Framework in Northern Ireland, or the broader economic effects of reduced border delays.
“Nor do they assess the impact on EU exports to GB, where additional SPS-related friction has been imposed despite the UK Border Trade Operating Model not yet being fully implemented,” Haverty said.
“An SPS agreement will therefore bring benefits to both sides of the Channel, as well as making trade between GB and Northern Ireland more straightforward.”
The deal, due to come into force by mid-2027, would “enhance competitiveness, reduce consumer price pressures at a time when inflationary threats are looming, and ease frictions on the UK’s most important trade route”, he claimed.
It comes as today’s King’s Speech laid further ground for the SPS deal – which will effectively take the food sector back into the EU single market.
Ministers would “introduce legislation to take advantage of new trading opportunities, including a Bill to strengthen ties with the European Union [European Partnership Bill]”, the monarch told MPs.
“Improved trading relations are vital for the United Kingdom’s economic security, for significantly raising economic growth, and for lowering prices for working people,” the King said.
Prime minister Keir Starmer added closer ties would “deliver more trade, more opportunity for young people and help to reduce the cost of living”.
However, a variety of food sector experts have raised doubt over these claims.
The Grocer last week reported that the SPS deal would “merely surrender the country’s regulatory sovereignty”, according to warnings by Robert Hardy, CEO of customs brokers EORI UK, and at a cost of up to £700m a year, while leaving the real issues faced by importers unresolved.
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