It was very much seen as a pivotal moment when, last May, Tesco told the Grocer it was calling on the government to bring in mandatory health reporting for all large food companies.

As the anniversary of that call gets closer, the government’s health strategy is facing another of those moments, only this time it could see co-operation turn into rebellion.

Last week, as The Grocer exclusively revealed, government ministers met with Industry leaders for crunch talks on its health strategy, with the burning issue on the agenda the government’s plans to shake up the system that decides how food in the UK is classified as healthy or not.

After being flagged in Wes Streeting’s 10-year NHS plan, the move to a new Nutrient Profiling Model (NPM) has shot to the top of the industry’s agenda after the DHSC published plans confirming it will use the much tougher model to underpin the recently introduced junk food advertising ban and in-store promotion restrictions.

As The Grocer revealed earlier this year, a whole raft of major food companies are warning the consequence of the move would effectively ban their products from advertising before 9pm on television, at all online and rob them of the right to use promotions in supermarkets.

Suddenly, the very supermarkets who were apparently helping to forge the government’s public health strategy are now warning of its disastrous economic impact. They are accusing ministers of moving the goalposts for rules underpinning health classification – even though the updated model dates back to 2018.

Cloud of uncertainty

While tougher definitions around free sugars remain the main source of contention, last week’s talks were inevitably dominated by the backdrop of the conflict in Iran, which has cast a huge cloud of uncertainty over energy prices and supply chains.

Industry leaders told The Grocer they were urging the government not to “pile more costs” on companies, amid growing fears the impact of the war could derail Keir Starmer’s determination to tackle the cost of living crisis.

Today The Grocer reports that IGD, the powerful industry umbrella body bringing together supermarkets and manufacturers, is warning that if the government goes ahead with the NPM reclassification, Streeting’s plans to roll out mandatory reporting by 2029, as Tesco and others championed, would be scuppered.

“We are concerned that implementation of the current NPM 2018 will delay the introduction of mandatory reporting beyond the Government’s 2029 deadline, specifically due to the inclusion of the free sugars metric,” says Hannah Daley, IGD’s head of health and sustainable diets.

While health campaign groups accuse the industry of trying to water down government plans, it appears that the broad industry coalition in favour of taking action to tackle the obesity crisis is fracturing, with strong opposition from retailers and suppliers set to test the government’s willingness to force through regulation.

And if the terrible events in the Middle East continue for any length of time, this is hardly likely to be the last argument of this nature.

The worrying truth for the government is that, should the conjflict drag on, everything it is planning on health and the environment will be up for grabs; from circularity strategies and net zero plans, to the Food Strategy and Streeting’s 10-year NHS plans.

March was supposed to bring updates on all of these. Instead, all eyes are on what Donald Trump and Israel do next and how the Iran’s battered rulers respond. that uncertainty makes it impossible to give these strategies the commitment and resources they deserve, let alone secure full industry buy in.

The reality is that, while the human cost is far greater, these events are a nightmare for civil servants trying to plan major regulatory change – and they raise serious doubts about how much will ever see the light of day.

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