It started with so much promise. Fresh from wooing big business with his programme for government, now defenestrated prime minister Keir Starmer first took his message of hope to the NFU conference in February 2023.

The Grocer covered that appearance with the jauntily-titled ‘Starmer impresses farmers’. Yet little more than 18 months later, his new government – despite its landslide election victory in July 2024 – was already making the policy missteps that would come to define his leadership and, today, culminate in his long-expected resignation.

Setting aside the winter fuel allowance own-goal and the disastrous Peter Mandelson scandal, Starmer’s pre-election promise that he would listen to business concerns and ensure “food security is national security” came to very little when the already struggling food sector needed real help.

Both he and Chancellor Rachel Reeves stuck to their pledge they would “not tax working people” to fill the gaping hole in public finances, but that led to tinkering around the edges of other tax levers, such as the divisive changes to Inheritance Tax for farmers which sparked a series of protests.

Reeves’ changes to National Insurance contributions – quickly dubbed a “jobs tax” – also put paid to any remaining goodwill. Supermarket CEOs warned of spiralling costs that would drive businesses to the brink, with the fallout also feeding into a wider youth employment crisis.

It wasn’t all bad, of course. Trade union Usdaw today pointed out Starmer had delivered the “biggest-ever uplift in workers’ rights”, alongside legislation to tackle retail crime.

But the messaging around his premiership – reflecting his reputation as a bad communicator – drowned out those wins, instead cementing his reputation as a u-turning ditherer.

‘Unforced errors’

The list of errors only continued to grow. The bungled early closure of the Sustainable Farming Incentive was followed by a conspicuous lack of progress on a new National Food Strategy, while the government’s interventionist health agenda saw former health secretary Wes Streeting press ahead with long-delayed restrictions on junk food advertising, before floating plans for mandatory healthy food targets and reporting requirements for supermarkets.

Although welcomed by health campaigners, these measures fuelled further industry frustration that a government which had been elected on a promise of growth was instead piling fresh compliance costs and regulatory burdens onto businesses.

Then came two particularly jarring cost of living interventions. Firstly, a package of tariff reductions on imports that would save the average family just £5 a year while also undercutting UK farmers. And secondly, a surprise proposal for supermarkets to voluntarily cap the price of essential food items – slammed as “preposterous” by M&S boss Stuart Machin and shelved almost as quickly as it appeared.

It’s also telling that Starmer stood down a day before the tenth anniversary of the Brexit referendum, and exactly a month before the UK is due to take part in a summit with the EU to ratify his flagship reset deal.

Despite the lasting damage inflicted on the food sector by Brexit, even industry bodies such as the FDF and BRC have cast doubt on whether the deal will meaningfully cut red tape.

So what happens next? As soon as Starmer’s tearful speech ended, the news agenda rapidly shifted to the presumed leader-in-waiting Andy Burnham, who was sworn in as an MP this afternoon following his by-election victory at Makerfield last Thursday.

Burnham’s return

Burnham – who has already confirmed his intention to stand as PM – can already count on Streeting’s support. And it will be interesting to see if Reeves will stay on as Chancellor, given her recent warning that a leadership change could spook the financial markets.

Where the so-called ‘King of the North’ differs from Starmer, of course, is his approach to political communication.

He’s already made pledges to support businesses, notably with businesses rates cuts – a move which will be welcomed by small shops, restaurants and pubs – having admitted earlier this month that Labour “got it wrong on small businesses”.

Those businesses had been left reeling after last year’s budget, when a promised business rates discount proved too small to offset the end of Covid relief.

Burnham has said he would raise the threshold at which firms start paying business rates from £12,000 to £18,000, a move that would lift the tax burden entirely for many single-site operators. He has also signalled a possible cut in National Insurance contributions for some retailers.

All of which raises an obvious question: how to pay for it? Burnham’s answer is to increase taxes on online tech giants and their warehouses, ensuring they pay their “fair share”.

If that sounds familiar, it is because it is almost exactly mirrors Labour’s 2024 manifesto pledge to “level the playing field between the high street and online giants”. Predictably, that ran into problems, resulting in a new higher rate of tax for all large businesses.

“This was the theory behind the current government’s super higher multiplier, which has just resulted in all bigger businesses being hit by higher rate bills, again undermining business investment, jobs and growth,” says John Webber, head of business rates at property consultancy Colliers.

“Saying you are going to reduce business rates is as predictable as kissing babies,” Webber adds.

The relationship with farmers

Whether Burnham can shift the dial among farmers is another question. Campaign group Save Britain’s Farming says: “Whoever succeeds Keir Starmer faces a stark reality: Britain’s food system is becoming less resilient at precisely the moment the world is becoming more volatile.”

It points out the proposed SPS agreement with the EU “is not a panacea for the challenges facing food producers”. Britain still lacks a coherent food production strategy, it adds, with farmers “being asked to produce more with less support, while facing rising costs, geopolitical instability and intensifying import competition”.

Former NFU president Minette Batters adds Burnham will “inherit a long tail of Whitehall dysfunction as far as food goes and food production goes”.

For his part, Burnham said in his victory speech on Friday that he wanted to “bring hope for the future”, adding he would focus on “problem solving”, while this was “a final chance to change” for the Labour Party.

Whether he can deliver that change as our next prime minister, will shape not only Labour’s future, but the trajectory of the UK’s food system and the political landscape of the country for years to come.

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