Have meat alternatives just solved their price problem?

Debate around the take-up of plant-based diets often ends up focusing on cost. Putting aside beans, pulses and other cheaper options, attention tends to land on processed meat alternatives and the idea that plant-based diets come at a premium.

Last week, we reported on research that showed that gap may finally be closing. Indeed, in some cases plant-based products were now cheaper. The report by the Good Food Institute found that at Tesco, plant-based meatballs were 41% cheaper than their beef, lamb and pork equivalents, while plant-based mince was almost a third (29%) cheaper than traditional minced meat.

Meat consumption falling

On the face of it, these findings are good news for consumers, and for wider goals around health and sustainability.

Meat consumption in the UK is already trending downwards: the average Brit ate 848g a week at home in 2024, the lowest level since records began – though experts say it needs to fall further still if the UK is to hit its net zero targets.

And as The Grocer’s research shows, most plant-based products still cost more than meat equivalents (see table). But crucially it shows the gap in many categories is closing.

So what’s caused the gap to close? And how will it impact consumption? The initial assumption was that it was driven in part by soaring meat prices, and that’s true: average beef prices are currently more than 16% higher than this time last year. But The Grocer’s analysis reveals a more complicated picture. While many chilled plant-based lines are now cheaper per pack, they continue to be more expensive per 100g. Chilled meat averages £1.41 per 100g, while plant-based still comes in at £1.61.

But that gap is also closing rapidly, as meat prices continue to rise at a much faster rate, while plant-based prices remain largely flat.

This is seen most starkly in the frozen category, where meat is on average 7.1% more expensive than a year ago. The same categories in plant-based are up by just 1.1%.

This means frozen plant-based burgers that were more expensive than their meat equivalents last year are now cheaper.

None of this is happening in isolation. We know inflation has hit food pricing hard – so how are plant-based brands keeping inflation in check? And is this the natural correction plant-based brands have been waiting for?

Source: Analysis of Assosia data by The Grocer, 52 w/e 8 May

A beefy challenge

Of all the meat categories facing high inflation beef has borne the brunt, and this is reflected in the The Grocer data. Chilled and frozen mince were up by 8.1% and 16.6% respectively, while chilled and frozen burgers increased by 4.9% and 16.8% respectively. Chilled steak rose by 6.6%.

With beef prices soaring over the last year, Emma Wantling, retail & consumer insight manager (senior analyst) at AHDB, admits it has led to changing consumer behaviour “with some consumers choosing to switch to cheaper proteins, particularly chicken and pigmeat”.

However, according to AHDB data, plant-based has not benefited from meat price rises in general, with the plant-based category as a whole actually declining in volume by 6.9%, despite its far slower inflationary rate.

She predicts that with consumer confidence “likely to remain muted”, shoppers will “focus their spend on offerings that give them the best value for money – and meat is likely to remain a staple”.

The meat industry is also confident meat is not going to drop out of baskets despite higher prices. According to Lucas Daglish, sustainability manager at the British Meat Processors Association, “price should be considered alongside nutritional value”.

He adds that “consumers are increasingly prioritising protein, nutritional density, taste, satiety and naturalness when making purchasing decisions,” which secures meat’s place at the nation’s table.

Tony Goodger, head of communications at AIMs, agrees, raising consumer concerns over “multi-ingredients recipes based heavily on imported lines purchased in bulk”.

He warns that “scrutiny of the ingredient list should always be considered as one of the many factors [in consumer choice]”.

Plant-based price parity

As alluded to by Goodger, pricing is not the only reason plant-based has had a difficult few years. The market has been in clear decline, hit by concerns not only over pricing but healthiness, as well as taste and convenience.

But Helen Breewood, senior market and consumer insights manager at non-profit think tank the Good Food Institute Europe, says costs are being kept down simply because “plant-based foods require fewer inputs than conventional meat”.

“This efficiency means they are less exposed to the supply chain vulnerabilities that have driven up meat prices over the last year and are expected to continue pushing costs higher,” she adds.

Manufacturers have also been driving down costs through production efficiencies and a greater reliance on cheaper ingredients. Plant Based Food Alliance CEO Marisa Heath believes taking price out of the equation in this way will allow shoppers to make decisions based on “taste, convenience and values” rather than cost.

“And as plant-based supply chains scale and remain less exposed to volatile feed and input costs, we would expect that pattern to continue,” she adds.

Indy Kaur, founder and CEO of Plant Futures, argues plant-based is becoming more competitive at exactly the time shoppers are looking for better value. As plant brands continue to “scale, improve taste and nutrition, and get stronger retail backing”, she too believes more consumers will choose the cheaper option.

Quorn has identified this as a real opportunity for the category. UK marketing director Lucy Grogut says the data reflects exactly what the brand is seeing; a clear shift in “how the conversation is evolving around value for money and eating meat-free”.

“As awareness of this value shift increases, meat-free is attracting a much broader audience,” she adds. “This increasing relevance will continue to drive consideration and trial and, ultimately, help restore ­stability for the category.”

Indeed, many expect the plant-based category to return to growth, with the recovery underpinned by changing consumer behaviour as shoppers move towards more flexible ­eating habits.

Cautious optimism

So with the rising cost of meat continuing to pile fresh pressure on household budgets, will we see plant-based alternatives finding their way into more shoppers’ baskets?

While the meat industry hopes not, those in plant-based, according to Heath, have a “cautious optimism” that as price parity looms, and the possibility of a reversal in price differentials, more consumers will try plant-based options.

Ultimately, the economics are shifting. Meat is being pushed up by volatile input costs and reduced supply, while plant-based is benefiting from simpler inputs and scaling production.

Will lower prices make people swap their beefburgers for beetroot? Maybe not. But it is one less point of friction. And for a category that has spent the past few years on the back foot, that shift could prove to be significant.