Shoppers are facing higher prices for haddock as a result of falling Icelandic supplies, experts have warned.

Iceland's haddock quota for the 2009 to 2010 fishing year, which starts in September, has been reduced by 30,000 tonnes compared to last year. It will now have a total allowable catch of 63,000 tonnes.

"As Iceland is a dominant supplier and exporter of haddock, it will unfortunately mean there is less haddock available to the UK market," said one supplier.

The shortage of haddock would result in higher prices coming through from the autumn, added a senior industry source. That could lead to a situation where haddock was more expensive than cod, he said, particularly as scientists had recently identified that cod stocks were healthier in areas such as the North Sea. "Haddock has always been cheaper than cod but you could get the case that they flip and you start seeing cod being cheaper than haddock," he said.

The 2009 to 2010 fishing year will be the third year running that the Icelandic haddock quota has been cut, after reaching a high of 105,000 tonnes between 2005 and 2007.

By contrast the Icelandic quota for cod has been increased from 150,000 tonnes to 162,500 tonnes for the new fishing year.

Higher prices for haddock had not yet reached stores but supermarkets were monitoring developments, one buyer told The Grocer.

UK suppliers might see the situation as an opportunity to increase haddock prices, he warned. However, he insisted retailers would work hard not to increase prices, even if the fish became more expensive to buy in.

"This development comes at an interesting time because we've spent all this time worrying about cod," he added.

More affordable fish species such as hake and hoki were already proving popular substitutes to haddock among consumers, one supplier claimed.

This might help prevent haddock prices rising dramatically, he said.