Don't look for more gains says DS economist Latest suggestion the pigmeat market price in much of the EU has little if any further upward potential comes from Denmark where Danske Slagterier economist Carsten Flemin describes the industry as having underlying stability. Flemin means there is no structural contraction of supply under way, implying predictions of scarcity are not credible arguments for prices above the present level. "These are the good times," he told The Grocer, referring to the current market value of just under 10kr/kg in Denmark. In Flemin's opinion his producer suppliers, most with breakeven points in the 8.50-9kr range, should be content with the recovery from last year's 6kr nadir and not count on more gains. The current market price vindicates predictions by Flemin's colleagues months ago when they warned Danish farmers against banking on a coming boom taking prices to 12kr or more. This cautious tone in Denmark is significant for the UK market because some producers have been watching the severe contraction of output capacity in some other EU states and assuming total supply could shrink enough to push the price up to around 120p per kg from its present 90p. There is certainly to be a supply squeeze in the Netherlands and Belgium but that is largely government policy rather than producers' response to the 1998-99 price collapse. The outlook in the other major producing countries, Germany, Spain and France, is unclear. Although breeding stock numbers are falling, the consequence may not be enough of an overall decline in EU output next year to prevent a cyclical price decline. {{MEAT }}