The cost of living crisis is “still biting for many this Christmas”, according to latest analysis from Worldpanel by Numerator.
“One in five households tell us they’ve been struggling financially and that’s been largely consistent over the past two years,” says Worldpanel head of consumer insight Fraser McKevitt.
It is a similar message from supermarkets. “I do think this year more than ever, household bills are a challenge, and customers are looking at their spend,” Aldi UK & Ireland CEO Giles Hurley told The Grocer last week.
So, what are retailers doing about it, and how is it playing out in Christmas dinner prices?
The traditional family feast
Retailers have answered with promotions and price cuts, in a battle evident in the Grocer 33 Christmas basket comparisons.
Across Asda, Morrisons, Sainsbury’s, Tesco and Waitrose, the average cost of a budget Christmas 33 basket was up by just 0.4% (61p) to £93.80.
That’s despite wider grocery price inflation of 4.7% in November, according to Worldpanel.
Read more: Weaker food and drink prices power sharp drop in inflation to 3.2%
Worldpanel’s analysis of the average cost of a traditional Christmas dinner for four has it 11p cheaper than last year, at £32.46.
That’s because “retailers are pulling out all the stops” with offers and lower pricing, says McKevitt. “Just under one third of all spending is on promotion as supermarkets find ways to shield shoppers from the impact of price rises,” he adds.
Turkey
Back in early November, turkey prices in the major multiples were up by as much as 30% year on year, according to analysis by The Grocer using Assosia data. More than half of all frozen turkey lines in supermarkets were outpacing general inflation [Assosia 52 w/e 4 November].
But it was a different in story in The Grocer’s budget Christmas basket comparison of 8 December, when four out of five of the supermarkets were offering promotions or loyalty discounts on frozen turkey crowns. The average price across all five was down 1% to £16.44.
Frozen turkey was also down in Worldpanel’s Christmas dinner, by 3.6% to £13.52, accounting for much of the overall fall in the price of the meal for four.
Vegetables
Christmas veg prices were also up steeply year on year in recent analysis by The Grocer using Assosia data [52 w/e 17 November].
Morrisons white potatoes (2.5kg) rose by 50.4% to £1.94, only to come back down £1.65 by 21 November, representing an annual increase of 27.9%.
There were also big increases in carrots, with Asda Grower’s Selection Carrots 500g and Sainsbury’s Carrots So Organic 700g up 15% and 13% respectively.
Sprouts had almost universally increased, with core lines at Morrisons, Aldi, Lidl and Sainsbury’s all up by over 10%.
Likewise, four out of five types of veg in Worldpanel’s Christmas dinner were up in price year on year in November. Carrots rose 5.5% to 52p, cauliflower climbed by 4.2% to £1.22, sprouts increased by 3.6% to 92p, and potatoes increased by 1.1% to £1.67. Only parsnips fell, by 0.4% to 71p.
In fact, aside form turkey and parsnips, everything in Worldpanel’s Christmas dinner was up in price since last year (see below).
But a changing picture was emerging in the Grocer 33 budget Christmas basket last week. That found carrots (1kg) were down 1% year on year to an average 69p, while potatoes (2kg) had dropped 3% to an average £1.85 and red cabbage was flat at 87p. Among fresh veg, only sprouts (1kg) were up, by 9% year on year to an average £1.41.
The deals
However, it is not until the week leading to Christmas that the gloves really come off and retailers reveal how deep they are willing to go to win the festive shop.
That’s when Aldi, Lidl and Morrisons are all dropping the price of festive veg to just 5p.
Aldi
As of 19 December, Aldi’s latest family Christmas dinner deal costs £9.43 and consists of:
- British Small Whole Fresh Turkey (£7.47, 3kg/£2.49 per kg)
- Quixo Gravy Granules (97p, 300g)
- Everyday Essentials Yorkshire Puddings (40p, 15-pack)
- Quixo Sage & Onion Stuffing Mix (39p, 170g)
- Nature’s Pick White Potatoes (5p, 2kg)
- Nature’s Pick Brussels Sprouts (5p, 500g)
- Nature’s Pick Carrots (5p, 1kg)
- Nature’s Pick Parsnips (5p, 1 pack)
Lidl
As of 19 December, Lidl’s latest family Christmas dinner deal costs £10.18 and consists of:
- Birchwood Small Whole Turkey (£2.50 per kilo (£7.63) from 20 December)
- Brussels Sprouts (5p, 500g)
- Parsnips (5p, 500g)
- Carrots (5p, 1kg)
- Potatoes (5p, 2kg)
- Newgate Gravy (99p, 300g)
- Newgate Stuffing (90p, two packs)
- Simply 15 Yorkshire Puddings (46p)
Both Aldi and Lidl revised their offers on 19 December, including dropping turkey from £2.95 per kg after being undercut by a Tesco Clubcard deal.
Aldi’s earlier offer was pitched as serving eight and it has revised this to six, though the only change to ingredients is the removal of an additional pack of stuffing mix.
Lidl is claiming its meal serves eight, as before, though the only difference in the ingredients of the two is that Lidl’s has two packs of stuffing mix instead of Aldi’s one.
Tesco threw a spanner in the works of their ‘eight-person Christmas dinners’ with its announcement of a Clubcard deal for six including nearly as much food for under £10.
Aldi is understood to have made its revision from eight to six diners to make the deals more easily comparable for consumers.
Aldi and Lidl’s latest prices are in stores from 19 and 20 December respectively.
Aldi is also dropping red and white cabbages to 5p, while Lidl is doing so for echalion shallots (300g).
Aldi is also offering “the ultimate Christmas dinner in a box”, feeding four for £29.95. Its Specially Selected low-stress Christmas dinner box includes a slow-cooked turkey joint, pigs in blankets, parsnips, potatoes and gravy. It’s due to land in stores on 19 December.
Tesco
From 19 December, Tesco is selling a Christmas feast for six for under £10 with Clubcard discounts.
It consists of a 3kg whole turkey for £7.50 (£2.50 per kg, or £5 per kg without a Clubcard), 15 own-label Yorkshire puddings (230g, 40p or 46p without a Clubcard), chicken gravy granules (200g, 65p or 73p without a Clubcard), sage & onion stuffing mix (170g, 40p or 45p without a Clubcard), and four types of veg – carrots (1kg), potatoes (2kg), sprouts (500g), and parsnips (500g) – all reduced on Clubcard to 15p each.
It comes in at a total of £9.55, or £1.59 a person.
Sainsbury’s
Sainsbury’s is offering a £13.31 deal to serve six (£2.21 a head), with Nectar loyalty discounts.
It consists of a standard small turkey weighing 2.995kg, carrots (1kg), sprouts (1kg), parsnips (500g), white potatoes (2kg), 12 pigs in blankets (260g), gravy granules (170g) and sage & onion stuffing mix (170g).
Sainsbury’s has also thought of vegetarians, unveiling a meat-free option with a plant-based Wellington as the centrepiece, albeit slightly more expensive, at £13.82 for six, or £2.30 per person for the meal. Pigs in blankets are swapped for Plant Pioneers Pups in Blankets.
Sainsbury’s deal is in stores from 19-24 December.
Asda
Asda is offering what it claims is “the cheapest fresh Christmas dinner in a box offering on the market”, based on a price per head of £6.32. It costs £37.97 and serves six, with slow-cooked turkey breast wrapped in dry-cured bacon, sage and onion stuffing, pigs in blankets, roast potatoes, carrots, parsnips, red cabbage, sprouts and gravy. It’s available in stores from 18 December.
“This year we’ve taken care of all the hard work, so that customers can focus on enjoying the big day, knowing they’ll serve a flavour-packed, delicious Christmas dinner without any of the stress that comes with hosting,” said Asda product development manager Sarah Denyer.
“We’re launching it in our standard own-brand range, bringing all customers a high-quality Christmas meal that’s easy to recreate on the day, delivering great value and convenience, but without compromising on taste or festive flair.”
Morrisons
Morrisons was first to announce a festive veg price drop to a new low of 5p on 18 December, prompting a similar move from Aldi and Lidl.
Morrisons said that until 26 December, More Card customers would be able to buy carrots (1kg, usual price 69p), parsnips (500g, usual price 74p), sprouts (500g, usual price £1), and whole swedes (usual price 62p), all for 5p each. Morrisons is also dropping the price of 1.5kg of roasting potatoes for all shoppers, from £2.20 to £1.
Unlike Aldi and Lidl, Morrisons has not specified the cost of a set value Christmas dinner for a family.
However, Morrisons said it had also cut the cost of other seasonal favourites, including 50% off Market Street Whole Salmon, on offer at £7.95 per kg (usually £16 per kg) from now until 24 December. Mince pies are also half-price, at £1.75.
“We work directly with British farmers and growers all year round to bring our customers the freshest, highest-quality British produce,” said Morrisons Market Street director Fraser Lovatt.
“From sprouts to spuds, seasonal veg are at the heart of the Christmas dinner plate and we’re proud to help our customers enjoy them for less, while continuing to champion and support the British farmers who grow them.”
All the supermarkets slashing the price of veg have claimed it does not affect payments to farmers. Morrisons said its festive veg offer had “been developed in close collaboration with UK farmers, ensuring that seasonal savings are delivered without compromising the price paid to producers”.
Morrisons is also offering a new £40 Christmas dinner in a box, containing four “generous portions” of its Best Signature Collection slow cooked turkey with pork, sage and caramelised onion stuffing, streaky bacon, beef dripping potatoes, honey butter parsnips, mulled red cabbage, pigs in blankets and gravy.
Waitrose
Waitrose provided the following examples of prices and offers:
- Higher Welfare Turkey with Giblets £30
- 1kg carrots 70p
- 500g parsnips 80p
- Cranberry sauce £1.50
- Essential For Meat Gravy Granules £1
- Two for £5 Christmas cheese
- Three for £12 on trimmings including British Treacle Pigs in Blankets, Cranberry and Honey Stuffing and Devils on Horseback
- Three for two on premium No. 1 Christmas Party Food including Polar Bao Buns, Breaded Brie Wedges and Mini Beef Yorkshire Puddings
- 25% off premium No. 1 mince pies
Iceland
Iceland said its centrepiece Christmas joints started from £10, including Luxury Aberdeen Angus Beef Roasting Joint, down from £15. “Premium options such as the Luxury Beef Wellington, serving six, are priced at just £30,” said a spokesperson. Premium sharing options such as Luxury King Prawns with Creamy Prosecco Sauce are reduced from £5 to £2.50.
In desserts, Iceland Black Forest Gateau, Lemon Meringue Baked Alaska, Profiterole Star and Raspberry & Pistachio Pavlova Tree are all half price.
Heron Foods
B&M-owned frozen food retailer Heron Foods is pitching a meal for four for £15, or £3.75 a head.
Shoppers can choose from two centrepieces – a stuffed turkey breast joint (800g) or gammon joint with maple glaze (600g).
They must then choose any six of the following sides: sprouts with bacon (400g), chantenay carrots & herb butter (400g), red cabbage & apple (350g), mixed roasted veg (500g), cauliflower cheese (680g), 12 pigs in blankets (240g), basted roast potatoes (700g), beef dripping Yorkshire puddings (252g), and dauphinoise potatoes.
Bought individually, items in the meal would come to £23.77, meaning shoppers can save £8.77 on the bundle, according to Heron.
The frozen deal is available in stores until “early January”.
Posh options
Of course, Christmas of all times is not just about counting the pennies. Retailers will be hoping their budget offers can draw in shoppers who will also splash out on more expensive premium choices.
“Retailers are savvy to the fact that at Christmas especially – even when times are tough – consumers still find the space in their wallet to spend on small treats,” says Worldpanel’s McKevitt.
“In fact, we’ve seen that right through the cost of living crisis as people have found new, more affordable ways to indulge in what we call the ‘pick-me-up pound’. The rise and rise of premium own label lines bears this out with one in every £20 now spent on these treat-type products.”
It’s a trend Aldi’s Giles Hurley is keenly aware of. “We know for some years now there has been that development of people looking to dine in and celebrate at home,” he says. “This Christmas more than ever, we’ll be supporting that.
“We have our biggest ever range of Specially Selected products on sale this Christmas. Our buying teams have done an absolutely fantastic job working with the best of our British suppliers to bring some innovation, some artisan products to our shelves.”
M&S, too, will know that different rules can apply to spending when consumers are entertaining guests. Despite costing £195, its Tom Kerridge Beef Wellington sold out between September and the start of December.
But can consumers expect to pay more on average for their premium choices this year? Our premium Christmas 33 basket of 1 December suggested so, but only slightly. Across the six retailers covered – Asda, Morrisons, Sainsbury’s, Tesco, Waitrose and M&S – the average cost of the basket was up by 0.7% year on year, from £162.96 to £164.06.
Once again, promos, price cuts and loyalty discounts were driving down the cost. Lowest-priced Asda (£131.76) was offering three price-cut lines and eight multibuy promotions, while second-placed Sainsbury’s basket (£145.66) included 16 Nectar offers.
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