The UK will rear 1.36 million fewer lambs this year than in 2012, partly as a result of the unusually poor weather in late 2012 and early 2013.
New forecasts by Eblex expect this year’s lamb crop to stand at 15.8 million head – 8% less than the 17.16 million produced in 2012.
Previously, Eblex had expected farmers to produce the same number of lambs in 2013 as in 2012, but it downgraded its forecasts today in light of the weather problems sheep farmers experienced this year and last year.
Although the snow and ice that hit parts of the UK a few weeks ago caused concern for some UK sheep producers, it was not the main reason for today’s downgrade, Eblex said. “It is mainly due to a notable reduction in the lamb rearing rate, which is expected to have fallen by 10 percentage points from the relatively high levels of 2012,” it said.
“While the prolonged adverse weather since the beginning of 2013 has led to above average lamb losses reported in some regions, undoubtedly making the situation worse, the decline began much earlier in the season.”
Eblex/AHDB senior analyst Paul Heyhoe added: “It has been clear for some time that the lambing rate would be lower, as the poor weather in 2012 and associated feed problems will have resulted in many ewes being in poor condition at tupping.”
However, despite the drop in lamb numbers, overall slaughterings this year were expected to be up by 3% on 2012, “as reduced new season lamb numbers are expected to be balanced by a significant carryover of hoggets being slaughtered during the first half of this year”, Eblex said.
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