Confectionery - sugar 2025: Sweets sales soar ahead of HFSS rules

Dentists could be busier than ever in 2026, after an extra 7.9 million kilos of sugar confectionery went through tills in the past 12 months.

That’s a 3.7% volume gain that’s helped drive a 3.2% value rise. The market’s worth an extra £60.4m following a splurge by brands on ads, deals and NPD ahead of the government crackdown on junk food marketing.

“Brands in growth have focused on format innovation, visibility and value,” says Chetna Johar, NIQ senior analyst. “Many have ramped up advertising and in-store activity, boosting engagement ahead of the HFSS restrictions. Value sold on deal is up by 8ppts and now accounts for a quarter of total category value.”

Johar, of course, is referring to the long-awaited crackdown on how HFSS food and drink can be advertised and promoted. From January, paid-for online ads for HFSS products will be banned outright and TV ads will be restricted to between 9pm and 5.30am. Multibuy deals by retailers will also be nixed.

Brands have therefore increased efforts to make hay while the sun still shines. Haribo, for example, launched TV, cinema and VOD ads in May to support its new Nostalgix and established Tangfastics lines, using its familiar dubbing of adults with kids’ voices.

The work’s paid off. Candy’s number one player is up by 8.7% in value and 14.1% in volume. That means 59.2% of the overall category’s volume growth comes from Haribo.

“Tangfastics remains the UK’s number one bestselling sweets product, closely followed by Starmix at number two,” says Jon Hughes, the brand’s MD.

“Our success has been boosted significantly by Nostalgix, the biggest NPD in the category. Backed by substantial investment from the business, including our new ‘Kids’ Voices’ campaign, Nostalgix has proven to be a fan favourite. The product builds on the nostalgia trend and offers consumers a flavour flashback – taking the classic flavours of hard-boiled sweets and transforming them into a soft jelly texture.

It’s crucial to note that, kilo for kilo, branded sweets are 2.5% cheaper than a year ago. Average prices have fallen for all top 10 brands except Trebor and Fruit-tella, thanks to a growing reliance on deals and larger sharing packs. Soaring chocolate prices haven’t hurt the category, either.

“Tubs and hanging bags of sugar confectionery, meanwhile, offer great value for money,” says Swizzels trade marketing manager Clare Newton. “We’ve seen a really strong uptick in sales of our Sweet Shop Favourites Tubs.”

Perfetti Van Melle reports a similar dynamic. Its Stranger Things x Chupa Chups limited-edition 10 and 16 multipacks have become the UK’s bestselling lolly SKUs since their September launch, claims trade marketing controller Derek Baker.

“As chocolate prices rise, sugar confectionery is seen as a more affordable, accessible treat,” he adds.

“Amid cost of living pressures, the lipstick effect comes into play with consumers seeking reliably good treats to give them a little lift through the day. Classic confectionery formats, flavours and brands that evoke a sense of nostalgic joy have continued to grow.”

Indeed, just three top 10 brands – Maynards Bassetts, Trebor and Fruit-tella – have seen volumes decline. “The brands that struggled typically fell behind on two fronts: distribution and innovation,” says Johar at NIQ.

“Those that saw reduced availability in-store or slower distribution growth struggled to maintain sales. A lack of NPD means fewer opportunities to engage shoppers or tap seasonal demand.”

Hence the rise in seasonal specials. Swizzels, for example, launched its first Christmas limited-edition Squashies, Naughty & Nice Elves, in 2024. It followed up this year with Squashies Love Hearts for Valentine’s Day and Squashies Drumchick for Easter (see Top Launch below).

“Squashies Love Hearts were so well received we brought them back as a permanent addition,” says Newton.

“Seasonal specials like this bring excitement and newness to the category. Stocking these alongside our variety bags and tubs helps retailers ensure they maintain availability during seasonal events.”

Threat of challengers

Such activity is particularly important for big brands given stiffening competition from challengers. The second and third greatest contributions to category volume growth in the past year have come from players not in the top 10: Nerds and Bebeto.

Nerds volumes have more than tripled thanks to sizeable distribution gains, driven in part by the 2024 launch of Nerds Gummy Clusters. Bebeto volumes are up 25.5%, due partly to the 2024 debut of its Freeze Crunchy range.

Whether the two brands can crack the top 10 may partly depend on how they negotiate the coming HFSS crackdown. “Brand rankings will be shaped by how well players respond to the shifting retail and regulatory landscape,” says Johar.

“The HFSS restrictions will limit traditional promotional levers and make investment in compliant formats and digital visibility more important.”

Some brands have already responded with non-HFSS lines. Haribo grew its reduced-sugar range in February with Alienauts.

At Swizzels, “we’ve extended our range with the launch of HFSS-compliant Squashies Sour Shooting Stars and Tropical Squashies, which really helps widen the reach of the category in larger stores that are affected by the HFSS regulations”, says Newton.

“Products like this allow us to activate at till points and gondola ends and stay within the rules.”

Responsibility for ensuring brands and retailers remain on the right side of the new regulations will fall to the ASA and Trading Standards.

Hopefully, they won’t find themselves as busy as dentists next year.